Newsletter No. 576
News-Analysis
April 7, 2007

 

JAPAN-PAKISTAN COOPERATION IN THE “WAR ON TERRORISM”

On April 5th a meeting was held in Islamabad between teams of Japanese and Pakistani officials on how to cooperate on the “war on terrorism.” The Japanese delegation included “Ambassador in Charge of Counter-Terrorism” Akio Suda, as well as representatives from MOFA, the National Police Agency, and the Japan Coast Guard.

To the best of my knowledge, this meeting was not reported in Japan, but only in the Pakistani press. Unfortunately, we have very little idea what they talked about, or even how long these discussions continued. The Pakistani press did note, however, that direct cooperation between Japan and Pakistan on counterterrorism began in January 2006 at the time of Foreign Minister Taro Aso’s visit to the country.

Indeed, if one reviews the MOFA press statement carried in Shingetsu Newsletter No. 153, there was mention of a “Counter Terrorism Consultation in order to enhance exchange of information and their cooperation in counter-terrorism.” Also recall that just before Aso’s January 2006 visit to Islamabad, it was revealed that a member of Sipah-e-Sahaba Pakistan may have been plotting a terrorist attack inside Japan in 2003 (see Shingetsu Newsletter Nos. 149 and 155).

PRIME MINISTER SHAUKAT AZIZ HAILS JAPANESE TECHNICAL ASSISTANCE

In a meeting held yesterday between Pakistani Prime Minister Shaukat Aziz and visiting JICA Vice-President Atsushi Hatakenaka, words of praise were offered to the Japanese side. According to the Pakistani press, Aziz said “Overseas Development Assistance has a positive impact on development in the social sector contributing to the success of the reform agenda… appreciated JICA Pakistan’s role as a bridge between people of Pakistan and Japan to promote cooperation based on exchange of knowledge and experience… [and] commended Japanese assistance for projects in key sectors like road, water and power generation and distribution.” He went on to ask for further cooperation in building new dams and in providing assistance to the Karachi Circular Railway project. The Pakistani prime minister also noted his own countries efforts to liberalize the economy and promote foreign investment, and encouraged Japan to enter negotiations for a bilateral FTA.

Hatakenaka also met with Federal Minister for Communications Muhammad Shamim Siddiqui, and held a similar conversation.

A couple of weeks ago -- on March 20th -- the Japanese Ambassador to Pakistan Seiji Kojima held a lecture in Islamabad focusing on Japan’s ODA priorities in Pakistan. He noted that over the last two years, Pakistan was one of the top ten recipients of yen loans.

The catchy title of the lecture was “Japan’s Official Development Assistance to Pakistan and Aid Coordination -- Beyond Aid Modalities.”

The interesting points included his observation that “Japanese assistance also covers governance with the emphasis on police reforms, election supports and devolution.” He also noted that infrastructure development has been the largest beneficiary with 75.2 % of the total during the period of 1977 and 2004, followed by Irrigation and Agriculture (9.8%), Health (7.5%), Industry (4.2%), and Education (2.8%).

For the future, he noted that “We intend to increase our ODA by US$10 billion over a period of five years, and to achieve these goals, our ODA in general and ODA to Pakistan in particular should be supported by a wide range of Japanese people.”

Analytical Note --

I’m less sanguine about the future of Japan-Pakistan relations than is Ambassador Kojima. For one thing, none of these reports mention the nuclear non-proliferation issue, which is supposed to be a priority for Japanese policymakers.

More to the point, I wonder if Japan-Pakistan relations are destined to be so smooth after President Musharraf passes from the scene. The Pakistani president has been in office since his bloodless coup d’etat of October 1999, which means that his eighth anniversary in power is soon to arrive. Last month he faced a major crisis over his suspension of the country’s chief justice. In my estimation, Musharraf is one of the most intellectually-gifted heads-of-state in the world today, but it is fair to question how much longer he can hold on. My expectation is that the future leaders of Pakistan will be far less accommodating to Washington and the “war on terrorism” than he has been.

If this is so, then one can easily imagine future problems in the Japan-Pakistan relationship as well, especially if Tokyo keeps leading its bilateral policies with the counterterrorism issue.

Before 9.11, Japan-Pakistan relations were chilled by the May 1998 nuclear test. After 9.11, that issue took a back seat to counterterrorism concerns. If Pakistan eventually retreats from the Musharraf line (which I believe that it will) then what will become of Tokyo’s policy at that point?