Newsletter No. 994
News-Analysis
April 26, 2008

 

THE WHITE HOUSE BACKS THE SYRIA-NORTH KOREA NUCLEAR STORY

We have mentioned on several previous occasions here the suspicions and rumors that the September 6, 2007, Israeli air strike on a building in a remote part of Syria was targeted on a nuclear facility being built with North Korean assistance (see Shingetsu Newsletter Nos. 817, 925, 929, and 959). On the 24th, the Bush White House went partially public with what they claim is “extremely compelling” evidence that the nuclear story is true.

What is the Evidence?

The position that I have taken on this matter all along is that I don’t rule out the possibility that the story may be true, but that the accusers have the burden of proof in making the case. So what is the new evidence being presented now? Here is how an AP report describes it:

CIA Director Michael Hayden, Director of National Intelligence Mike McConnell, and National Security Adviser Stephen Hadley showed lawmakers a narrated video presentation that included still photographs of a facility and equipment in eastern Syria that bear a strong resemblance in design to North Korea's Yongbyon nuclear plant. The United States knows a great deal about the design and operation of the Yongbyon plant, because American experts have been on site there since last year, as the North complied with its agreement to take the reactor out of service... The North Korean reactor has in the past produced small amounts of plutonium, which is highly radioactive and can be used to make powerful nuclear weapons or radiological bombs, and officials said the Syrian facility was within weeks or months of being completed but still needed significant testing before it could be declared operational. However, no uranium -- needed to fuel a reactor -- was evident at the site.

So is this the evidence? Photographs of a facility and equipment that bear a strong resemblance in design to North Korea's Yongbyon nuclear plant?

Photo: The site of the Israeli air strike, before and after
Source: US government

But we had already heard on the Washington rumor mill many months ago that the building was a cube that resembled the Yongbyon plant. Other than the release of the satellite photographs, where is the new evidence here?

Well, now there is also a still photo of what the White House says is the inside of the Syrian building before it was bombed. They released this photo and “helpfully” distorted the color to make it the same red color as the inside of the Yongbyon reactor.

Photo: Purported photos inside the alleged Syrian reactor
Source: US government

I am not an expert on these matters, but a close reading of some media reports reveals the following information: According to the official assessment of US intelligence, they have "high confidence" that the structure bombed by the Israelis was a nuclear reactor; "medium confidence" that the North Koreans were involved in building it; and "low confidence" that plutonium from it was for nuclear weapons.

Say what? The White House and its allies are describing the evidence presented to Congress as “extremely compelling,” and at the same time the CIA says that it has “low confidence” that Syria was trying to build nuclear weapons there? I don’t know about you, but it seems to me that an awful lot of territory lies between the designation “low confidence” and the description “extremely compelling.”

Bottom line: Let’s wait and see how this shakes out. The evidence against Syria is looking much stronger now. On the other hand, we all remember what happened to the Colin Powell-George Tenet “slam dunk” presentation on Iraqi WMDs in February 2003. I want to hear what the IAEA has to say. I want to see how well this new evidence holds up under the scrutiny of independent experts and investigative journalists. It will take a while longer, I feel, to make an accurate assessment of what we’ve really got here.

The Syrian Reaction

The Syrian Ambassador in Washington Imad Moustapha did not mince words in responding on CNN to the White House’s presentation: “This is a fantasy and this administration has a proven record about fabricating stories about other countries' WMDs. I hope the truth will be revealed to everybody. This will be a major embarrassment to the US administration for a second time -- they lied about Iraqi WMDs and they think they can do it again… I hope the American citizens and the representatives of the American people would not be as gullible this time as they were prior to the war on Iraq and they will stop believing the silly accusations of the US administration."

Ouch!

On the other hand, the Syrian government in Damascus has reacted to the whole affair in a suspicious manner. When the Israeli air strikes occurred last September, they kept to strict silence. The site of the bombing was quickly bulldozed and Syria immediately built a new and different structure there. This does indeed suggest some sort of hanky-panky on their part. If the Israelis had bombed something entirely innocuous like a baby milk factory, why not invite the world press in to see it and loudly denounce the attack to everyone?

Did the Syrians in truth have something to hide there like nuclear development? Or were they just inept in terms of their PR strategy? Or was there some other political factor that we don’t know about yet?

The Japanese Reaction

There are many important ramifications to this story -- especially as they regard the Six Party Talks with North Korea -- but at the Shingetsu Institute our concerns are more with how they might affect Japan-Syria relations.

On the morning of the 25th Prime Minister Yasuo Fukuda told reporters: “If such a connection exists, it is a very big problem from the point of view of nuclear nonproliferation.” The separate comments of Chief Cabinet Secretary Nobutaka Machimura were almost identical in their wording. Foreign Minister Masahiko Komura said that the Syria-North Korea nuclear cooperation was “extremely regrettable.”

The Japanese-language media makes it clear that, behind the scenes, US Ambassador Thomas Schieffer has been active. The American ambassador held a private briefing on the fourth floor of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs building for senior Japanese policymakers just after 2 pm of the 25th. Using a laptop computer, Schieffer presented pictures that he said were “conclusive evidence” of Syria-North Korea nuclear collusion. Komura is said to have been convinced that the accusations are largely true.

In Japan, the new evidence is mostly being interpreted within the framework of what it means for North Korea. I haven’t seen anything yet on how it might affect Japan-Syria relations.

At any rate, Japan-Syria relations are proceeding only at a modest level even now. The main connection seems to be through JICA, and it seems unlikely that this latest development will seriously threaten that modest technical cooperation. On the other hand, there has been a cautious warming of bilateral diplomatic relations. Most notable was the meeting between Deputy Foreign Minister Katsuhito Asano and President Bashar al-Assad in June of last year. Only last month JICA President Sadako Ogata also met with the Syrian president.

One may presume that Tokyo will now become even more cautious in this rapprochement with Damascus.