Newsletter No. 999
News-Analysis
April 29, 2008

 

PEACEKEEPING MISSION IN MINDANAO TOTTERS ON THE EDGE OF COLLAPSE

Frustrated with the lack of progress in talks between Manila and the rebel Moro Islamic Liberation Front (MILF), the government of Malaysia, which heads the International Monitoring Team (IMT), announced that it will pull out of the Mindanao peacekeeping mission. This has raised the prospect that the relative peace in Mindanao as a whole could begin to crumble.

Mary Ann Arnado, a lawyer who heads the peace group Bantay Ceasefire, told the local media, “The pullout will clearly have dire consequences on the lives of people in conflict-affected areas in Mindanao… The presence of the IMT in conflict-affected areas not only allowed the people to enjoy relative peace but also provided an environment conducive to peace negotiations. It also allowed aid agencies to operate relatively free and unhampered in the conflict-affected areas.”

The Malaysian government had apparently begun hinting that it might pull out its peacekeepers as early as August of last year. It is now being said that the actual pullout will begin on May 10th unless “something big” happens in the peace process. The main sticking point seems to be that Manila is dragging its heels on signing the long-planned ancestral domain agreement.

There are suggestions in the local media that the MILF and local peace groups are far more concerned about the impending Malaysian pullout than the government. Apparently, there are government officials in Manila who believe that the Malaysians have shown favoritism toward the rebel side. One government official told the press: “There is no use crying over spilled milk. I think this is actually a blessing in disguise for us. Now that we have a chance to invite more neutral countries to participate, I think we should grab it.” Of course, comments like this are not very conducive for producing trust between Manila and the Muslim rebels.

Japan’s Position

Japan’s tenure in the IMT is currently due to expire this July, and sources in Manila say that Tokyo is now reevaluating its entire policy in light of the Malaysian pullout. Masafumi Nagaishi, the JICA coordinator who serves in the IMT, told the local press, "I will finish my term here in August. I'm expecting another colleague after my term but it all depends on our government. In my opinion, it's really necessary to complete the reconstruction efforts in Mindanao."

Before the latest crisis, Japan’s efforts had been focused on the Japan-Bangsamoro Initiatives for Reconstruction and Development (J-BIRD). In the first half of March a number of specific funding agreements had been signed. Presidential Peace Adviser Jesus Dureza had then issued a statement saying, “The implementation of projects under J-BIRD provides opportunity for promoting peace and development, even in the absence of a final peace agreement with the MILF.”

The Mindanao peace process, and Japan’s role in it, now stands at a crossroads.