Newsletter No. 1440
News-Analysis
August 25, 2009

 

AFGHAN ELECTIONS: MOFA DECLARES VICTORY TOO SOON

Much too eager to declare themselves vindicated, MOFA rushed out with an official statement on the 21st announcing that the elections in Afghanistan were a great success. In their own words: “the polling process was successfully carried out as planned in most regions, with the support of the international community and through the efforts of the Government of Afghanistan.” The only problem, as MOFA saw it, was the Taliban: “Japan condemns the terrorist activities and election obstructions that occurred in some areas… The Government of Japan expresses its respect towards the passion and bravery of the citizens of Afghanistan who went to the polls despite the harsh security situation, as well as towards the Government of Afghanistan and staff of the United Nations and other organizations who supported the holding of the elections.”

The MOFA statement was entirely predictable since it was just a rehash of the Euro-American party line: Brave, democratic forces in Afghanistan led by President Hamid Karzai are nobly battling against drug-dealing, fanatical Taliban terrorists for the future of this strategically-important country.

Reality, however, once again didn’t get the memo. Shortly after Tokyo patted itself on the back for another job well done, the main challenger to Hamid Karzai, former Foreign Minister Abdullah Abdullah, accused the Karzai regime of massive electoral fraud. Both Abdullah and independent observers have taken exception to the appointment of Azizullah Lodin, a former academic and Karzai advisor in the western province of Herat, as head of the Independent Election Commission (IEC). He was appointed by presidential decree two years ago and President Karzai subsequently refused to allow the parliament to confirm his appointment.

In the past week, Lodin went on television to celebrate the high voter turnout, even though most observers believe the turnout was low, especially in the south.

Human Rights Watch has accused Lodin of displaying “clear bias.” Abdullah Abdullah has been even sharper: “The president of the IEC, he is working for the incumbent. That is very obvious. We don’t have faith in the chief of the IEC… As far as the commission officials throughout the country are concerned, there have been widespread reports of biased attitude, corruption and so on.”

None of this accords very well with MOFA’s celebratory statement on the 21st. What will the Japanese Foreign Ministry do about this issue? Well, if the past is any guide (and it usually is) MOFA will attempt to ignore the entire issue as if nobody had said anything. After keeping their heads down for a while, they will resume spouting the party line out of Washington, whatever that happens to be.

Election Observers

It should be noted that MOFA did send a delegation of about ten observers to the Afghan presidential elections. Takehiro Kagawa, deputy director general of the Middle Eastern and African Affairs Bureau, was the head the team, whose members consisted of other ministry officials. As usual, it seems that this prestigious team arrived just days before the elections were held. My understanding is that serious election monitoring efforts should begin months before Election Day. I also doubt that MOFA officials back home were interested in hearing anything from their election observer team that might challenge their cozy vision of Afghan realities.

Japanese Journalist Detained

Tokyo Broadcasting Systems (TBS) reporter Nobuhiro Kojiro was arrested by Afghan security forces, and then questioned about his reporting and news coverage. It appears that Afghan government authorities demanded that journalists not report about any violence on Election Day, and Kojiro’s arrest may have been part of these efforts. Kojiro was released the next day.

Peace-Building Conference

The Asahi Shinbun reported yesterday that a multiparty group of lawmakers is planning to host an international conference in Tokyo in late November to discuss ways to build peace in Afghanistan. The international conference will be jointly sponsored by the Japanese committees for the Parliamentarians for Global Action (PGA) and for the World Conference of Religions for Peace (WCRP). Martti Ahtisaari, a former Finnish president who won the Nobel Peace Prize in 2008 for his mediation efforts in conflicts around the world, is scheduled to serve as chairman of the conference.

This effort is said to have the full backing of the opposition Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ), which is likely to form the next government in less than a week.

Waiting for the DPJ

Indeed, Afghanistan is undoubtedly going to be a major foreign policy challenge for the new government from the outset. It will help define not only the new relationship with the United States, but also the future of the anticipated DPJ-SDP-PNP coalition. In particular, Afghanistan will test Hatoyama’s connections with the SDP, and to some degree the JCP, which will not join the government but might offer some support in the Diet if conditions are right.

The augurs at the moment suggest that the DPJ’s policy will be to withdraw the SDF from the Indian Ocean, but to enhance civilian support for Afghanistan. This will include both the sending of government officials and private sector people.

We are still awaiting the more concrete proposal.

APPENDIX ONE: MOFA STATEMENT

Statement by the Press Secretary on the Presidential and Provincial Council Elections in the Islamic Republic of Afghanistan
August 21, 2009

The Presidential elections and Provincial Council elections were held in the Islamic Republic of Afghanistan on August 20. Although there were incidents to disturb the elections in some areas, the polling process was successfully carried out as planned in most regions, with the support of the international community and through the efforts of the Government of Afghanistan. The Government of Japan expresses its respect towards the passion and bravery of the citizens of Afghanistan who went to the polls despite the harsh security situation, as well as towards the Government of Afghanistan and staff of the United Nations and other organizations who supported the holding of the elections.

Japan condemns the terrorist activities and election obstructions that occurred in some areas. Japan expresses its deepest condolences for those who have been killed, and to the families of the victims. Japan also expresses its heartfelt sympathy toward the injured and prays for their earliest recovery.

Japan dispatched election observation missions to these elections. Japan expects appropriate counting and tallying of votes and will continue to carefully watch the results.

APPENDIX TWO: OPINION PIECE

Creating Jobs for Afghan Insurgents Key to Peace
By Daisaku Higashi
Asahi Shinbun
August 13, 2009

I did my own field research on peace-building in Afghanistan for two months last year. I interviewed top government officials, including Cabinet members, and conducted an opinion survey of 260 ordinary Afghans in the provinces of Kandahar, Kapisa, and Wardak.

I concluded from these interviews and the opinion survey that there is a consensus among the Afghan government, the United Nations, the International Security Assistance Force (ISAF) and ordinary Afghans that there will be no peace in Afghanistan without reconciliation with the insurgents.

The presidential election on Aug. 20 in Afghanistan could provide a critical opportunity to start the reconciliation process as the leadership chosen in the coming election will obtain legitimacy in the eyes of local Afghans, who will have new expectations for political leadership and better governance.

With regard to the current government of President Hamid Karzai, almost all the Cabinet members I spoke to emphasized the importance of reconciliation with the insurgents. The civilian representative of the ISAF also supports reconciliation under the condition that the insurgents accept Afghanistan's new Constitution.

It is also crucial that ordinary Afghans strongly endorse the reconciliation process. According to my opinion survey, more than 90 percent of Pashtun respondents said the first priority to achieve peace in the landlocked country is to reconcile with the insurgents, including the Taliban. Pashtuns are the ethnic majority in Afghanistan, and the Taliban are mainly of Pashtun origin. Surprisingly, 86 percent of Tajik respondents, who are in the minority in Afghanistan and have been in conflict with the Pashtuns, answered that reconciliation with the insurgents—including the Taliban—is the first priority for making peace in Afghanistan.

This indicates there is a broad consensus on the need for reconciliation across different ethnic backgrounds.

Given the impressions of the Taliban rule in the 1990s, some might think that all Taliban members are committed to radical Islamic ideology. However, most of the insurgents are currently fighting because they are paid $100 each month by the Taliban. Many Afghan government and U.N. officials share the view that almost 90 percent of Afghan insurgents are fighting so as to earn a living.

Thus, it is possible to reconcile with these non-ideologically committed insurgents and stop the violence, if the Afghan government can provide "security" and "an alternative livelihood" to those insurgents.

In fact, the Afghan government tried to reconcile with Taliban militia forces by establishing a "national reconciliation program" in 2005. Unfortunately, the program was not very successful because (1) there was no substantial cooperation by the U.S. administration of former President George W. Bush, and (2) there was no mechanism to support the livelihood of these insurgents after they decided to lay down their weapons and reconcile with the government.

However, the current administration of President Barack Obama explicitly asserted in its new strategy for Afghanistan that "it is indispensable to reconcile with non-ideological insurgents who are fighting for a price." Due to this explicit principle, it has become realistic to initiate a new reconciliation program.

The background of this new strategy by the U.S. government is its experience in Iraq. Since 2007, the U.S. forces have made progress in reconciling with almost 100,000 Sunni insurgents by paying $360 per month to individual insurgents who cut their links with al-Qaida. This policy resulted in a drastic curtailment of the insurgency in Iraq after 2007. When the Afghan presidential election is over, it will be a critical moment to start the reconciliation process based on economic incentives.

I proposed in my report to the United Nations that we should initiate a "vocational program for reconciliation" across Afghanistan. Under this mechanism, both Afghan insurgents and ordinary villagers would obtain training for their future livelihoods in vocational centers. They would also receive salaries during the training period.

Japan is able to play a central role in this process. The Japan International Cooperation Agency has already established nine vocational centers in Afghanistan, and the employment rate for those who completed their training at these centers has exceeded 70 percent. If Japan can utilize this experience to link "job creation" and "reconciliation," and succeed in improving security conditions in Afghanistan, it will be appreciated by both the Obama administration and the Afghan people.

It would show that Japan has contributed to Afghan peace-building efforts using its own initiative.

The author, who was a program director at Japan Broadcasting Corp. (NHK) from 1993 to 2004, is a Ph.D. candidate in political science at the University of British Columbia, studying post-conflict reconstruction. His most recent publication, "Heiwa Kochiku" (Peace-building), is based on field research in Afghanistan and Timor-Leste