Newsletter No. 1447
News-Analysis
August 31, 2009

 

IT’S BEEN A LONG TIME COMING…

But a change has finally come. Indeed, this is arguably the most important development in Japanese-Islamic relations since the Shingetsu Newsletter began in June 2005. The ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), which has been the largest single political force in Japan without interruption since 1954, is no longer the king of the hill. Not only have they been tossed out of executive government for only the second time since their creation, they have been heavily, decisively, perhaps even mortally, defeated. They are down, down, down—and it remains to be seen if they ever get up again. Japanese politics has entered uncharted waters.

The Shingetsu Newsletter will be busy in September examining the new array of forces. In this report, we will examine the immediate results of the elections, and then consider the likely policy orientation of the new government toward some key issues in Japanese-Islamic relations.

308 Seats -- Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ)

There is no doubt whatsoever that the DPJ was the big winner. Only one other party saw its seat total rise in this election: Your Party gained one seat. In contrast, the DPJ gained no less than 193 seats, more than doubling its performance in the September 2005 elections. DPJ President Yukio Hatoyama is now going to become prime minister of Japan, probably in a week or two after a special session of the Diet is brought into session.

Since they fell short of a supermajority (320 seats) and do not have their own majority in the House of Councillors, there is no possibility that the DPJ can run the country without support of some other coalition partner. The expected partners of the DPJ will be the Social Democratic Party (SDP) and the People’s New Party (PNP). However, one wonders if the DPJ might be able to get their upper house majority soon by luring out some ambitious members of the defeated LDP. This would put the DPJ completely in the driver’s seat—at least until next July’s House of Councillors election.

The basic ideological orientation of the DPJ is centrist. Although the party was originally formed out of diverse elements, most party members are loyal to the DPJ brand, which was the recent creation of former party leader Ichiro Ozawa more than anyone else.

Speaking of Ozawa, who is now secure in his position as Shadow Shogun of the new regime, what an amazing achievement for this man! I think that he has just consolidated his position as the Political Giant of Heisei Japan. In hindsight, his achievements will probably be evaluated by future historians as eclipsing even those of Junichiro Koizumi, his only real rival for the crown. And to think that the most influential politician of this era will eventually pass from the scene having never actually been prime minister. Wow!

We’ll say much more about the new regime after it begins to take shape in the coming weeks.

119 Seats -- Liberal Democratic Party (LDP)

Wipe out! Last night some very big names took a tumble. Included among those who lost their Diet seats entirely were former Prime Minister Toshiki Kaifu, former Foreign Minister Taro Nakayama, former Finance Minister Shoichi Nakagawa, former LDP Vice-President Taku Yamasaki, former Defense Minister Fumio Kyuma, and the prominent Koizumi “lipstick assassins” Yukari Sato and Satsuki Katayama. Other big names who were defeated in their constituency elections, only to be “resurrected” in the proportional representation segment included Kaoru Yosano, Nobutaka Machimura, Hidenao Nakagawa, Seiko Noda, Tsutomu Takebe, Bunmei Ibuki, Akira Amari, and Yuriko Koike.

The LDP has no experience as an opposition party, so it’s going to be quite interesting to watch and see what happens to them. Basically, there are three possibilities: the party breaks down and fragments into pieces; the party survives but bleeds out more members to other parties; or the party hangs together and forms a credible opposition. My guess is the second option. Anyway, whatever happens in the coming months the old LDP just died yesterday and will not return the same as before.

Before I wrap up this segment, I also want to call attention to Taro Aso’s gracious performance on TV last night. In a short interview I watched an NHK, Aso said all the right things. It’s not easy to lose power, but Aso did it with dignity. I thought to myself that this must have been his finest moment as premier. What defines democracy better than a peaceful transfer of power to the people’s choice? Aso was exemplary. He even managed to congratulate his opponents.

21 Seats -- New Komeito Party

In some ways, New Komeito got hit even harder than their LDP allies. Although they lost “only” 10 seats, they were completely shut out in Single Member District (SMD) races and won all of their seats through proportional representation. As a result, the party was decapitated: Its senior leaders were all pushed out of the Diet. Party President Akihiro Ota, Secretary-General Kazuo Kitagawa, and former minister Tetsuzo Fuyushiba are now out on the street.

I expressed several times in the past—for example in Shingetsu Newsletter No. 1220 last December—my astonishment that New Komeito would insist on lashing itself to the mast of a sinking ship. As I expressed it in that newsletter from over eight months ago: “I recently read a New Komeito executive explaining that their party has ‘no choice’ but to maintain their alliance with the LDP. Why on earth would they believe that? What iron hold does the LDP have over New Komeito that they would consider themselves to have ‘no choice’ but to maintain the current coalition, even though everyone can see that it is crumbling?”

For their inexplicable stupidity, if nothing else, the New Komeito leadership deserves to be right where they are today.

9 Seats -- Japan Communist Party (JCP)

The JCP retained 9 seats, the same as last time, and so they remain the fourth-largest party for the time being. There has been much talk in the media about the resurgence of the JCP, but this hasn’t really been reflected in election results. The JCP is going nowhere.

Still, the victory of the DPJ does mean that a somewhat more congenial government is coming to power. JCP leader Kazuo Shii has declared that his party will be a “constructive opposition” force, meaning that the JCP will support or oppose the government on an issue-by-issue basis.

7 Seats -- Social Democratic Party (SDP)

The other small party of the Left also broke even. The 7 seats they won this time matches their total from four years ago. Earlier in the evening yesterday, it looked like it was going to be a very bad election for Mizuho Fukushima’s SDP, but they ultimately pulled out enough seats to be a (barely) credible force in the lower house. When combined with the more crucial 5 seats they hold in the upper house, the SDP might (or might not) hold a strategic position in the new government.

If the SDP does gain leverage, it will ensure that the new government pursues a Center-Left foreign policy. If political circumstances allow the DPJ to cast the SDP aside, the new government may be decidedly more conservative in orientation. The DPJ-SDP relationship is one to watch very closely.

5 Seats -- Your Party

Despite its stupid name, this new political party—founded earlier this month—is the only one except for the DPJ to improve its position in the lower house: They gained one seat. Led by Yoshimi Watanabe, a former minister in charge of administrative reform (and son of former Foreign Minister Michio Watanabe), the theme of this party is to aggressively reduce bureaucratic power. Rhetorically, that means they want the same thing as the DPJ. Watanabe and his colleagues, however, suggest that the DPJ is not really serious about this program.

It’s difficult to say what the future of this party will be. They might be absorbed by the DPJ or they might go their own way. We’ll see.

3 Seats -- People’s New Party (PNP)

There’s not much left of this party. Party leader Tamisuke Watanuki and its Secretary-General Hisaoki Kamei both lost their seats. Overall, they dropped one seat for a grand total of 3 seats. Also, all three PNP winners won in SMDs, meaning that it was the support network of individual politicians, not the party, that won the seats.

The PNP is supposedly going to be a coalition partner of the DPJ, but I wonder if they won’t eventually be absorbed altogether. I’m not sure the PNP is long for this earth.

8 Seats -- Other Parties

We can dispose of the micro-parties quickly. Yasuo Tanaka of New Party Nippon did his part by knocking off New Komeito’s Tetsuzo Fuyushiba. Tanaka is an ally of the DPJ. Ditto goes for convicted-bribetaker Muneo Suzuki, who led his New Party Daichi to victory in a single proportional representation seat in Hokkaido. Suzuki is interested in Japan-Russia relations in particular. An assortment of other independents picked up a total of six seats. The only one of note is former METI Minister Takeo Hiranuma, who dreams of reviving the Japanese Right.

What It Means for Japanese-Islamic Relations

The thumping victory of the Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ) in the Japanese general elections is going to have a strong influence on the future of Japan’s relations with the Islamic world. The DPJ has pledged to make the US-Japan alliance an “equal partnership,” by which they appear to mean that they will no longer be content to quietly accept foreign policy directions from Washington.

That said, the DPJ is a moderate party that believes in the importance of the US-Japan alliance, so long as it begins to function differently. DPJ leaders wish to make up their own minds about Japanese interests and then work with their American partners toward mutually beneficial solutions. Although this sounds like common sense, the reality of recent years has been that the Japanese government has consistently allowed US policymakers to determine the direction of Japanese foreign policy out of their paralyzing fear—encouraged by certain US officials and commentators—that any Japanese refusal on a major issue could lead to a weakening of the American commitment to guarantee Japan’s security in East Asia.

For Japan’s relations with Islamic countries, this has meant that Tokyo has been almost entirely unwilling to stand up to Washington on any issue of significance. Regarding Iraq or Iran or Afghanistan or Pakistan or the Arab-Israeli conflict, recent Japanese governments have repeatedly buckled under to pressure from the United States even in cases in which Japanese officials privately disagreed or had longstanding commitments to others. Frankly, it has been a sorry performance.

The new DPJ government—especially if they form a coalition with the tiny Social Democratic Party (SDP)—can be expected to be more assertive in making their own judgments and then stick to them. They will, of course, always take into account the views of their US allies, but now Tokyo will be marginally more willing to say “no” to Washington’s demands.

Another characteristic of the new government will be that they will much prefer to send Japanese civilian support for the benefit of US campaigns rather than leading with the Self-Defense Forces (SDF), as has been the case since September 11. The naval refueling mission in the Indian Ocean is likely to be wrapped up by the end of this year. At the same time, the new government will try to send unarmed Japanese officials to Afghanistan in an attempt to engage in peace-building. This, in fact, is probably going to be one of the first major foreign policy initiatives of the incoming Hatoyama administration.

As for Iraq, there is not really anything that the new government needs to change at the moment. The SDF missions were completed at the end of 2008, and the focus now is on obtaining development rights to Iraqi oil and gas. The latest reports suggest that Japanese companies will do very well, especially if the consortium led by the Nippon Oil Corporation gains rights to the massive Nasiriya field, which now appears imminent.

The future of Japan’s policy toward the Arab-Israeli peace process is murkier, because everything depends on the Obama administration’s policies as well as developments in the region. Currently, Japan is a crucial financial donor to Palestinian refugees, but has simply followed behind the United States in terms of diplomatic policy. In the 1970s and 1980s, Tokyo used to have a policy on this issue that was clearly distinct from the preferences of the United States. It is yet unclear if the DPJ has any ambitions in this sphere—they seem much more interested in Afghanistan.

Japanese warships are also operating off the Horn of Africa and the SDF has established an overseas base in Djibouti. These forces are out there, of course, as part of international efforts to reduce the threat of Somali piracy. The DPJ has not indicated what they intend to do, but a safe bet is that they will quietly continue the Somalia mission for the time being. Perhaps they may try to become more involved in internal Somalian peace negotiations, but that too remains to be seen.

Overall, it can be said that Japan has definitely entered a new era. Even the protagonists themselves have little idea where it will lead. The only question that has been resolved is the question of whether or not Japan ever really changes. Japanese voters have now answered that question with a resounding “yes”!