Newsletter No. 471
News-Analysis
December 23, 2006

 

NIYAZOV’S DEATH LIKELY TO RESULT IN MAJOR CHANGES

All eyes are on Turkmenistan as President Saparmurat Niyazov suddenly died of an apparent heart attack. When a country is a one-man dictatorship based on a strong personality cult, the death of the highest leader is no trivial matter. Independent Turkmenistan has known no other leader than “Turkmenbashi the Great” since independence in 1991.

Photo: President Saparmurat Niyazov in October 2006
Source: AP

In the immediate aftermath, it appears that the security services have asserted control over the succession. In theory, Ovezgeldy Atayev, the speaker of the parliament, was supposed to become interim leader under these circumstances. But he was quickly charged with wrongdoing and hustled off the political stage in no time flat. Assuming the post that should have been his was a complete unknown, Deputy Prime Minister Gurbanguly Berdymukhammedov. No one thinks that Berdymukhammedov is the real man of power, and he is probably just keeping the seat warm for whoever has really succeeded to Niyazov’s role -- or will there now be a power struggle between two or more major candidates? We don’t know yet.

At any rate, major changes of one kind or another are likely in Turkmenistan in the near future. It will be recalled that Ashgabat is politically close to Beijing, and had even withdrawn from the Central Asia Plus Japan dialogue framework this year. Can we now expect Ashgabat to change its foreign policy orientations?

Everyone knows that the stakes are high: Turkmenistan is rich in oil and gas resources, and is a key country in the debates about pipeline politics in Central Asia and the Caucasus region. Tokyo has a relatively minor, but still significant, interest in the outcome.

The Shingetsu Institute will keep a careful eye on how the death of Niyazov impacts Japan-Turkmenistan relations.