Newsletter No. 851
News-Analysis
December 17, 2007

 

FUKUDA STUMBLES ON THE WAR ON TERRORISM

Two things have become clear from the headlines today: First, Yasuo Fukuda is indeed embracing the “War on Terrorism”; and, second, his political position is dropping like a rock. The connection between these two developments is not an exact correlation, but some links are indeed there.

Photo: Prime Minister Yasuo Fukuda
Source: Reuters

Fukuda Backs Kunio Hatoyama

I expressed my annoyance in Shingetsu Newsletter No. 849 that Prime Minister Fukuda defended Justice Minister Kunio Hatoyama’s foreigner fingerprinting measures by saying, “the process is necessary as a means to prevent terrorism.” I judged that Fukuda had become an “antiterrorism crusader” much like his hapless predecessor, Shinzo Abe.

An article in the Asahi today makes it clear that I was not wrong. Not only is Fukuda now publicly backing fingerprinting, but he is even supporting Minister Hatoyama’s ridiculous and widely-mocked statements about how a “friend of a friend” is an al-Qaida member (see Shingetsu Newsletter Nos. 788 and 791).

According to the Asahi, Fukuda “rushed to Hatoyama's defense” by saying for a TV interview: “He is certainly an interesting individual. The contents of his statement were also interesting… That first comment in itself was not good. However, there is something interesting about it when one listens to the entire sequence… He was speaking honestly about the possibility of such people entering the country. He was only saying what is true and in a truthful manner."

So essentially, Fukuda has now publicly embraced Kunio Hatoyama’s position as his own.

Fukuda Support Rate Drops Precipitously

I am not the only one annoyed by Fukuda recently. The Japanese public’s view has also taken a sharp turn downward. In the latest Kyodo News poll, his support plummeted to only 35.3%, much lower than even I had thought. Those who disapprove of the Fukuda Administration rose sharply to 47.6%.

Moreover, the same poll questioned about the MSDF Indian Ocean mission and found the public now decisively opposes the MSDF Indian Ocean mission renewal by a margin of 46.7% to 38.8%. Also, in regard to Fukuda’s unbelievably airy dismissal of the Social Insurance Agency’s announcement that it would not meet its promise to clear up filing blunders by March 2008, fully 57.6% of the public described the government’s announcement a “breach of pledge.”

Political party support rates were as follows:

28.5% -- Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ)
25.2% -- Liberal Democratic Party (LDP)
3.6% -- Japan Communist Party (JCP)
3.1% -- New Komeito
1.5% -- Social Democratic Party (SDP)
0.3% -- People’s New Party (PNP)
0.2% -- New Party Nippon (NPN)
36.0% -- None of the above

Asked what sort of government they considered most desirable, 44.7% said they would prefer a government led by the DPJ, while only 28.5% opted for an LDP-led administration. As for when an election should be called, a very solid plurality -- 47% -- said that it should be in the first half of 2008; sooner rather than later.

These are numbers that should make the DPJ dance and the LDP tremble.

The reasons for the Fukuda Administration’s sharp decline in popularity are no mystery. First and foremost, Fukuda’s remarkably casual treatment of the pension matter is almost inexplicable in light of how sensitive the public clearly is about this issue. Secondly, the Moriya Scandal has not allowed the LDP to move beyond the similar problems of the Abe Era, and belief that Fukuda can bring about a significant change is dropping.

Where does the “War on Terrorism” fit in? The point, as I have said before, is that the Japanese conservatives are spending most of their time worrying about the US-Japan alliance, North Korea abductees, comfort women resolutions, and the Nanjing Massacre, while the general Japanese public simply has other priorities; in particular their deep concern over bread-and-butter issues like the economy and health care and pensions.

The US ambassador may think that the Indian Ocean refueling mission is the most crucial issue of the age, but the Japanese public simply doesn’t agree. The LDP is listening too closely to the Bush Administration and not nearly closely enough to their own people -- and that’s why they are still in deep political trouble.

So the LDP may be able to use its supermajority in early January to please US officials; but this will do nothing to solve their real problems, and may in fact exacerbate them seriously.

DEPARTMENT OF HOMELAND SECURITY DELEGATION IN TOKYO

One of the things that has deeply annoyed me many times since the end of the Cold War is how the US passes domestic laws, and then goes about pressuring other countries and their citizens to obey these laws which they had no role in shaping themselves. From where did the US receive this heavenly mandate of “super-sovereignty”?

At the end of November, a Department of Homeland Security (DHS) was in Japan pressuring the country to abide by a new US law, passed in August, on cargo container security.

While I can recognize very valid reasons why cargo should be inspected carefully, what I don’t understand is why this shouldn’t be done through an international treaty agreed to at a multilateral level rather than just another domestic US law that everyone around the world is expected to just obey without complaint.

At any rate, DHS Director of Cargo Security Policy Lauren Zucker told the press in Tokyo: “This will help enhance security without impeding the flow of legitimate trade… We are really committed to working in partnership to develop a realistic and responsible approach to fulfill the requirement… This is still the beginning of the dialogue.”