Newsletter No. 912
News-Analysis
February 18, 2008

The following report has been contributed by Sandra R. Leavitt (Shingetsu Member No. 55), who recently obtained her PhD from Georgetown University.

PRESSURE BRINGS CONTINUED PROGRESS IN MINDANAO PEACE NEGOTIATIONS

After a rocky December and January, peace negotiations between the government of the Republic of the Philippines (GRP) and the Moro Islamic Liberation Front (MILF) appear to again be moving forward. The GRP and MILF are to meet in Kuala Lumpur on February 18-19 to solidify recently made agreements on two key issues: ancestral domain for Moros and wealth-sharing with the government.

While the size of the new autonomous territory appears to still be in contention, Cabinet Executive Secretary Eduardo Ermita has stated that "the signing of the ancestral domain agreement is already assured, and it is just a matter of timing." However, even if endorsed by the GRP's executive branch and the MILF leadership, any agreement would still need to pass through the Philippines' judicial and legislative branches of government. In the past, the latter has been especially reluctant to enter into any compromise. Since the Tripoli Agreement of 1976, issues of constitutionality have also been raised by the GRP when it has sought to back out of negotiated agreements.

According to the Manila Standard Today (Feb. 13, 2008), the GRP and MILF have forged a 30-70 wealth-sharing agreement for the future Bangsamoro Juridical Entity (Moro homeland, BJE). The Philippine cabinet, with a few caveats, is said to be supportive of this agreement, which was negotiated in informal and formal discussions led by Malaysia in late 2007 and early 2008. Ermita, said "the scheme in favor of the MILF will ensure that the future Bangsamoro Juridical Entity is able to grow and develop." It is unclear what this revenue-sharing agreement may mean for foreign investors, such as Japan.

The GRP and MILF are under considerable pressure from members of the International Monitoring Team (IMT) that has been in the region since 2004 to help enforce a ceasefire agreement. Members of the IMT include Malaysia, Brunei, Libya, Japan and Canada. A 14-month impasse on issues of ancestral domain was broken in November 2007, only to be scuttled by the GRP in December. According to Jane's Intelligence of the UK, the MILF accused the government of suddenly introducing extraneous matters not previously discussed, including timing of disarmament and demand for a plebiscite. However, when the head of the Malaysian contingent, Maj. Gen. Datuk Mat Yassin bin Mat Daud, threatened not to renew the IMT in August 2008, the parties returned to the table and reached the above-mentioned agreements. According to Ayesah Abubakar, coordinator of the Mindanao Peace Program at the Research and Education for Peace of the Universiti Sains Malaysia in Penang, Malaysia, "the IMT plays a critical role in supporting the current GRP-MILF peace negotiations and in continuing the momentum for the resolution of the conflict in Mindanao."

In December 2007, however, the KAWAGIB Moro Human Rights Organization released a report that stated "there is still no atmosphere of peace in the Moro areas in Mindanao." The largest problems cited in the report are the continued displacement of locals and loss of property, farmland and livelihood in the wake of military confrontations. For instance, between January and November 2007, over 75,000 Moro civilians were classified as displaced. Extrajudicial killings, illegal detentions and torture continue, albeit at significantly lower numbers than in the past. Several cases involving government abuses against youth have been brought before the Philippine House of Representatives' Committee on Human Rights. The presence of the IMT has been central to improvements in security and economic development efforts, the latter of which has been led by Japan.