Newsletter No. 157
January 13, 2006

 

TOKYO BREAKS ITS SILENCE ON IRANIAN NUCLEAR DEVELOPMENT

Tokyo has finally broken its silence on Iranian political issues with a condemnation of Iran’s decision to restart its domestic uranium enrichment program.

The two major comments came from Chief Cabinet Secretary Shinzo Abe and from MOFA. Secretary Abe said that the Iranian decision “ignores the concern of the international community… We are urging Iran to halt all the activities linked to the process of uranium enrichment and genuinely abide by the requirement of the IAEA Board resolutions.” The MOFA statement is reproduced in full below.

Kyodo News also reported somewhat different concerns from a Japanese Trade Ministry official: “International oil markets may be thrown into confusion if the impasse in the talks spawned widespread speculation that Iran would move to halt its oil exports.” Evidently, some in the Japanese government are speculating that Iran may retaliate in the oil market should international sanctions be imposed over the nuclear issue.

Clearly, the Japanese government would be just as happy to see this whole problem go away, because it puts them on the spot. It’s the same dilemma as Tokyo has always faced since the Islamic Revolution: How do you keep your energy policies intact without antagonizing your main strategic ally too much?

The Azadegan deal is a crucial national interest. The US alliance is an even larger national interest. And, by the way, nuclear non-proliferation is an issue that for obvious historical reasons Japan has a special interest as well.

I laid out my thoughts on this issue in some detail in Shingetsu Newsletter No. 150, so there is no need to repeat all that here, but a few additional points are useful:

1) Former President Rafsanjani (not a close Ahmadinejad ally), denounced what he called “colonial taboos,” and said that these would not prevent Iran from developing its nuclear capabilities. This comment is in line with the “nuclear apartheid” notions of President Ahmadinejad, and demonstrates that support within Iran for at least civilian nuclear power is not limited to the hardliners.

2) A New York Times article characterized the dispute in the following terms: “Iran has repeatedly maintained that it has the right to develop nuclear fuel on its own soil, but the West argues that it has forfeited that right by its habit of concealing its activities.” If this is an accurate characterization of the issue at hand, then in substance I find the Iranian position to be more persuasive. If Iran is actually intending to build nuclear weapons, then I think that the West has some degree of right to interfere. If, on the other hand, the West is claiming the right to deny civilian uses of nuclear power to Iran, then I cannot conceive of any international standard that could justify that dubious principle. The idea that concealing one’s nuclear programs means that one “forfeits the right” to all nuclear power is laughable. I don’t recall the “Manhattan Project” having been publicly disclosed beforehand either. The Asahi Shinbun correctly noted in a recent editorial that, “Nations without nuclear weapons have the right to the peaceful use of nuclear power.”

3) Even if the logic of the Iranian argument is sound, it bears repeating that President Ahmadinejad’s outrageous rhetoric about Jews and Israel has greatly contributed to the current crisis. Political reality is more often determined by emotion and sentiment than by facts and logic, and Ahmadinejad’s mouth has been working overtime to eliminate pockets of sympathy for Iran that may exist in the outside world. The more-responsible elements of the Iranian political establishment had better find a way to put a leash on this guy before he does some very serious damage to Iran’s national interests. His latest statement wishing for Ariel Sharon’s death was totally unnecessary and very crude. Mahmud Ahmadinejad is unqualified for the important job that he holds.

It’s not quite clear what Tokyo is going to do about all this. I suppose that they will just keep their heads down and try to quietly navigate the major obstacles behind the scenes. They have much at stake, but not much that they can do if the United States and Iran drift into yet another political clash. This is not an issue over which Tokyo wields any decisive influence.

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Here is the full MOFA statement:

STATEMENT BY THE PRESS SECRETARY ON THE RESUMPTION OF URANIUM ENRICHMENT RELATED RESEARCH AND DEVELOPMENT ACTIVITIES BY IRAN
January 10, 2006

1) Japan deems it a matter of deep regret that, on January 10th, Iran removed seals installed at the uranium enrichment-related facilities in Natanz to resume "research and development" activities with regard to "the peaceful nuclear energy programme," disregarding the concerns of the international community.

2) The resumption of uranium enrichment-related research and development activities runs counter to the requirements in the agreement reached between the EU-3 (France, Germany and the U.K.) and Iran in November 2004 (Paris Agreement) as well as the relevant IAEA Board of Governors Meeting resolutions. It also undermines the basis of negotiations between the EU-3 and Iran for a peaceful and diplomatic settlement of the Iranian nuclear issue.

3) Japan strongly calls on Iran to immediately cease the resumption of the research and development activities and to implement sincerely all the requirements of the relevant IAEA Board of Governors Meeting resolutions including the suspension of all the uranium enrichment-related and reprocessing activities without exception.