Newsletter No. 487
News-Analysis
January 19, 2007

 

FOREIGN MINISTER LIVNI PUSHES TOKYO HARD ON IRAN AND HAMAS

Israeli Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni has been making the rounds in Tokyo, meeting with senior politicians and giving interviews to the media, promoting the official Israeli view of West Asian issues. Yesterday, she met with Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, and on the 17th she separately met with national security adviser Yuriko Koike and Foreign Minister Taro Aso.

Photo: Yuriko Koike, Tzipi Livni, and Ambassador Eli Cohen
Source: Konishi Katsuji

Foreign Minister Livni’s main arguments in Tokyo were repeated in each of the interviews she gave. She sketched out the notion that Islamic West Asia is divided between “moderates” and “extremists,” and that the Israeli government’s policy was to try to strengthen its relations with the “moderates,” while isolating the “extremists.”

In her Nikkei interview, she was directly asked, who are the “moderates”? Her response was as follows: “In my opinion, these are alliances of groups who have the same interests. With regard to the situation on Lebanon, the interests of the Siniora government are the same as other moderates in the region. As Hizballah is a proxy of Iran, it follows that Hizballah and Iranian interests coincide. With regard to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, the interests of Israel, Jordan, Egypt, Fatah, moderate Gulf States, as well as those of the United States and the international community are the same. Therefore, when the United States makes a decision, its calculations are based on these broader interests. However, this is not a zero-sum game, and these decisions are not necessarily against the interests of the other parties.”

Precisely, then, Livni’s view is that there is a moderate camp in West Asia whose constituents are the United States, Israel, Egypt, the Gulf States, Jordan, Fatah, and the Siniora government in Lebanon. Arranged against them are the “extremists” -- Iran, Hizballah, Syria, and Hamas.

And where does the Baghdad government of Nuri al-Maliki fit into this moderate vs. extremist scheme? Interestingly, she seems to have said very little about Iraq -- at least in her public interviews.

As expected, Foreign Minister Livni pushed hard on the notion of an “Iranian threat” to the region. According to her line of argument, the threat of Iran is posed by the convergence of its alleged nuclear weapons development and its “extremist ideology.” As she stated it in her Nikkei interview: “In the past, it was thought that the Israeli-Palestinian conflict was the cause of extremism, but current events have proved this concept to be wrong. Let us examine what is happening now. Iran has introduced the threat of nuclear weapons to the region. The Iranian cause, based on extremist Islamic ideology, has nothing to do with the Palestinian-Israeli conflict and does not represent the Palestinian national interest. Furthermore, Iranian nuclear weapons would pose a threat not only to Israel but to other moderate Muslim and Arab regimes in the region, none of whom have relations with Israel. It is obvious that the situation in Iraq must be stabilized before the Iranian threat can be curtailed.”

She was even sharper on these points in her NHK interview: “You can hear the President of Iran, and how he speaks of the denial of the Holocaust, saying they must erase Israel from the map. The reason for Iran’s nuclear program is not Israel and it’s not the Palestinian-Israeli conflict. The achievement of nuclear weapons is part of the extreme Islamic ideology of the Iranian regime. Let’s say that the Palestinian-Israeli conflict is soon solved -- do you imagine that Iran would put aside their extremist ideology? This ideology is not connected to the national spirit of the Palestinians, but it is connected to the vision of creating nuclear capability, and this is the real threat to the region. This is the understanding of the entire international community. I think there are some differences among some members of the international community as to what are the right steps to be taken -- whether soft or hard sanctions -- but when it comes to the nuclear issue, the threat is Iran.”

In other words, Livni’s view is that the Arab-Israeli conflict (or outside interventions, etc.) is irrelevant to the current political crisis in West Asia. The sole reason for the problems in the region today is the extremism of regimes like that in Tehran, which is in turn not linked in any way to their actual historical experiences, any legitimate grievances, or the manner in which they are treated by “the international community.” The root of the problem, according to Foreign Minister Livni, lies, apparently, in some inherent ideological flaw in Islamic or West Asian peoples. She doesn’t say this directly, but it is the only logical alternative to what she states are NOT the causes of conflict.

If Livni’s idea sounds somewhat familiar, it will be recalled that in Shingetsu Newsletter No. 107 in October 2005 we presented the views of Japanese intellectual Satoshi Ikeuchi, who made a strikingly similar argument based on his understanding of Islamic law: “Some argue that the Palestine dispute and the Iraq war are the cause of terrorism. It is the case that terrorists picture the Islamic world in conflict with the pagans’ world… by drawing upon Palestine and Iraq. However, under the rules of non-Islamic countries, this only justifies their violent crimes as jihad. Even if the Palestine dispute settles down, terrorism won’t disappear and terrorists will find another reason for their actions.”

At any rate, Livni made the case in Tokyo that Japan should support tougher sanctions on Tehran due to their nuclear development and their alleged extremism.

And what about Israel’s own nuclear weapons arsenal and its failure to sign the NPT? The NHK interviewer actually raised this issue briefly. Here was the exchange:

Question: About the nuclear issue, many countries in the Middle East are claiming that the main reason for the nuclear threat which has spread in the region is that Israel possesses nuclear bombs. For example, Libya says that they have abandoned nuclear armament, and now it is the time for the international community to focus on Israel’s nuclear issue. How do you respond that?

Foreign Minister Livni: Libya, as you know, is not playing a positive role in the region. I don’t want to refer to this accusation, because everybody knows the truth. Everyone understands that the threat is Iran, and Iran is trying to achieve nuclear weapons. Parallel to this, you can hear the President of Iran, and how he speaks of the denial of the Holocaust, saying they must erase Israel from the map. The reason for Iran’s nuclear program is not Israel and it’s not the Palestinian-Israeli conflict. The achievement of nuclear weapons is part of the extreme Islamic ideology of the Iranian regime.

Basically, she just dodged the question by asserting that Libya “is not playing a positive role in the region” and because “everybody knows the truth.”

I must confess that I am a dim fellow, because I myself do not “know the truth” as the Israeli foreign minister apparently knows it. How is it that she can push so hard on the Iranian nuclear issue when her own government is -- if anything -- in even graver violation of the international rules on nuclear development?

Tokyo, of course, is usually afraid to step too far off the Washington line (which itself protects Israel from the usual degree of international legal oversight), and so even the NHK reporter did not dare to ask the foreign minister to elaborate her position on this very important matter. Suffice it to say, however, that my own analysis is that the Israeli nuclear issue is more relevant to West Asian politics than Foreign Minister Livni is willing to acknowledge. I also don’t accept her assertion that “radical ideology” is the source of the regional political crisis -- it is far more of a symptom than a cause.

I do agree with Livni that President Ahmadinejad’s statements about the Holocaust and his verbal threats against Israel are a serious problem that needs to be addressed forthrightly by all people of goodwill. But I also note with satisfaction the most recent indications that there are many within the Iranian political establishment who are themselves turning against President Ahmadinejad precisely because they understand that his big mouth and obnoxious swagger are damaging the larger Iranian national interest. Iran is a big and complex country that should not be viewed two-dimensionally, and its leadership is not wholly united into a single party of interests.

Turning to the issue of the Israeli-Palestinian peace process, Foreign Minister Livni was very clear that the electoral victory of Hamas does not, in her view, give that party any legitimacy as a negotiating partner: “Unfortunately, the Palestinian elections brought Hamas into power, and Hamas is terrorist organization, with an extremist ideology. I believe that they don’t represent the national hopes of all Palestinians. So, the idea is to distinguish the terrorists from the moderates, the extremists from the moderates in the government -- Haniya and Abu Mazen, Hamas and Fatah. This in order to give those Palestinians who, I believe, want to live in peace as well, the opportunity to understand that Hamas cannot deliver -- not in economic terms, nor in political terms -- when it comes to the conflict; because terror can’t win.”

She also sketched out her general hopes for peace, and acknowledged that Gaza, at least, is not part of Israel: “Our goal in these negotiations is to achieve a two-state solution. There is a Road Map, which was endorsed by the international community and agreed to by both the Israelis and Palestinians. As the first step to break the stagnation in the process, Israel withdrew her forces and citizens from the Gaza Strip in an attempt to build a basis of trust and a belief in peace… When Israel withdrew from the Gaza Strip, we had the understanding and support of the international community that Israel has right to defend itself. We have ability to do so; it is a matter of decision. When it comes to the settlers, as a minister, I took the difficult decision to take people out of their homes. Israel has to fight terrorism, but at the end of the day, the Gaza Strip is not a part of Israel. I think this is not only understood by me.”

On the role of Japan, Foreign Minister Livni had the following message: “I believe that Japan and Israel have the same values in terms of humanity and human needs, and I believe that Japan shares the same interests, not only values but also the interests, with the other moderate states in the region with regard to the best steps to take. So, you see, it’s not a zero sum game. Supporting Israel is not necessarily anti-Arab or anti-Palestinian, and there are steps that are in the interests of Israel as well as of the Palestinians. So, Japan is playing a very important role in helping Palestinians and in promoting economic projects on the ground -- because at the end of the day we are talking about the people and how they are living. And the projects are crucial. During my visit, I would like also to share with the Japanese leadership our vision of the economic process through which Japan is supporting and helping the Palestinians. I believe this is both in our interest and the interest of the Palestinians. There is a special Japanese envoy to the Middle East, I met him in Israel, and I will share with him some ideas of the region, in the area of water and other development opportunities.”

She also tried to rattle some nationalist nerves in Tokyo by linking Iran and North Korea: “As an important member of the international community and as a former member of the UN Security Council, Japan played an important role in attempting to prevent nuclear proliferation in Iran. It is not difficult to foresee a future alliance between Iran and North Korea which will increase nuclear proliferation and likely cause a domino effect which may include terrorist organizations getting their hands on nuclear weapons. This is a scenario that can change the face of the world, so this is something that is of course not only in the interests of Japan and Israel, but of the entire international community.”

On the Japanese side, Prime Minister Abe was quoted as saying, “Japan would like to contribute to the Middle East peace process. Japan and Israel are on good terms right now, and we would like to further develop the bilateral relationship.” He also extended an invitation for Prime Minister Olmert to visit Tokyo this spring, though past experience suggests that this proposed visit may or may not actually occur.

According to Ynetnews of Israel, Tokyo also lowered its travel warning to Israel, an action which was “aimed at making it easier for Japanese businesspeople to visit Israel.”