IRAQI GROUP CLAIMS RESPONSIBILITY FOR GSDF ATTACK IN SAMAWA

There have been some important developments regarding Japan’s GSDF deployment to Iraq that have taken place in the last 48 hours or so. For the first time, someone has claimed responsibility for an attack on the GSDF base. According to a message posted on an Islamic website, the “Iraq Islamic Army” has claimed responsibility for the July 4th rocket attack.

According to Juan Cole, this probably refers to al-Jaish al-Islami, one of the two largest neo-Baathist organizations in Iraq. Certainly, from the point of view of motive, they are a very likely candidate for wanting to attack the Japanese forces. Diplomatically, PM Koizumi has always stood strongly behind the Bush Administration’s Iraq policy, and even helped lobby other countries in support of the March 2003 invasion. The fact that the GSDF has confined its actual activities to doing relief work is unlikely to gain much sympathy from the neo-Baath because they understand (better than the Japanese public itself) that the real purpose of the GSDF deployment is to provide legitimacy and political cover for American policy in Iraq.

The surprising element is that the neo-Baathists are now confident enough to launch attacks in Samawa, deep in southern Iraq and a heavily Shia-dominated area. It seems likely that the al-Jaish al-Islami agents in Samawa would only be a handful of men, but clearly they are well-armed with bombs and Russian-made rockets. Once again, it is worth repeating that even a single GSDF death would end the re-extension debate and probably force Japan to withdraw its entire contingent immediately. If the neo-Baathist leaders are sensitive to this political context, then it is easy to see why they might send a hit team down to Samawa.

In a related matter, an unusual nod to reality occurred at MOFA yesterday. Vice-Foreign Minister Shuzen Tanigawa told a press conference yesterday that in Samawa “the security situation appears different than in the past. We need to take all possible measures, thoroughly consulting with the Defense Agency.” It may be that the July 4th attack is shifting the debate inside MOFA and that support for re-extension is waning.

One last point to note here is that PM Koizumi has fielded some questions in regard to yesterday’s terrorist bombings in London. He was asked if the London bombings would affect Japan’s GSDF deployment in Iraq. His answer was: “This is not an issue that is directly linked.” When asked if the attack meant that Japan would immediately decide to withdraw from Iraq in December, he said, “No that is not the case.”