RYUTARO HASHIMOTO’S VISIT TO THE UAE MAY HAVE A SERIOUS PURPOSE

This newsletter is based more on inference than on hard fact, and I would certainly welcome any comments from the Shingetsu membership who may know more about this issue. Nevertheless, let me lay out an interpretation of current relations between Japan and the UAE.

Shingetsu Newsletter No. 32 presented a Yomiuri Shinbun news report from late April that suggested some kind of crisis in Japan-UAE relations. It was thought that former UAE President Sheikh Zaid bin Sultan al-Nahyan, who was the main architect of the UAE as a whole, was a supporter of ties with Japan, but since his death on November 2, 2004, Japan-UAE relations have been slipping. The Yomiuri suggested that this may be in part due to the rising influence of the new Crown Prince Sheikh Muhammad bin Zaid al-Nahyan, who is said to be close to elements of the American defense industry and ExxonMobil.

Other factors that may have led to a decline in Japan-UAE relations are the slow economic growth of Japan in the 1990s, which had a serious economic spillover effect on the UAE as it exported most of its oil to Japan. Also, in the past few years it seems that Japan has gradually been tightening its economic links with Saudi Arabia, partially at the expense of ties with the UAE. Perhaps this is the key factor that may be souring the relationship.

Currently, former Prime Minister Ryutaro Hashimoto is visiting the region. He is going to only two countries, Egypt and the UAE. In regard to the visit to the UAE, the MOFA official announcement says only the following: “In the United Arab Emirates (UAE), Mr. Hashimoto will, as a special envoy of the Prime Minister, exchange views with leaders of the UAE on bilateral relations. Mr. Takayoshi Taniguchi, Member of the House of Representatives and Secretary General of the Japan-UAE Parliamentary Friendship League, will accompany Mr. Hashimoto in the United Arab Emirates.”

I would speculate that Hashimoto’s visit is a rather serious one intended to put Japan-UAE relations back on an even keel as much as possible. Regrettably, it seems unlikely that the mainstream press will cover this story in any detail and certainly the official statements are unlikely to highlight any problems in the relationship.

For now I can only speculate. As I said, additional information from the membership would be quite welcome.