GSDF MISSION IN SAMAWA TO BE EXTENDED

It is now quite apparent that Tokyo is planning to announce that the GSDF will stay in Samawa past the December 14th deadline that had earlier been announced.

Responding to the July 7th terror attacks in London, Prime Minister Koizumi and conservative circles in Tokyo seem to have been persuaded that it would be unseemly for Japan to withdraw at the present time. On the 7th itself, Koizumi said: “We’ll just have to look at the security situation in December and then make a decision.” However, as was reported in Shingetsu Newsletter No. 33, the Defense Agency had indicated to Koizumi that they would need to know by about September if the GSDF was to withdraw because they would need adequate time to make preparations.

A very clear hint of Koizumi’s intentions was recently reported by the Nihon Keizai Shinbun. During the visit of Secretary of State Condoleeza Rice on July 12th, Koizumi made the following statement: “We cannot allow the reconstruction of Afghanistan and Iraq to fail. Japan too will cooperate with the world.” It is difficult to imagine that Koizumi would say this to Secretary Rice and then announce the withdrawal of the GSDF.

In fact, it is said that Tokyo is now studying ways to reinterpret UNSC Resolution 1546 to allow them to legally keep the GSDF in Iraq into 2006. (I can’t help but add that the Koizumi administration has become expert at “reinterpreting” laws as can be clearly seen in their approach to Article Nine of the Japanese Constitution.)

On the 18th, US Ambassador to Japan Thomas Schieffer, an old business partner of President Bush, added his voice to the debate while speaking at the National Press Club: “We know that [the GSDF deployment to Iraq] was a threshold to cross for the Japanese government and the Japanese people. It is not an easy thing for them to be there. But we think that their contribution is making a difference, and it is a contribution that they can proudly say they are making on behalf of the international community, and not because the United States is there... All of us have to do things that we would prefer not to do from time to time.”

Ambassador Schieffer’s statements are notable for several reasons. First of all, it clearly shows that Washington is pressuring Japan to stay in Iraq past December. No surprise there. It’s also apparent that he is trying to bolster PM Koizumi as much as he can by emphasizing that the GSDF is “making a difference” and by echoing Tokyo’s public line about its presence in Iraq being done to support “the international community” rather than the United States.

Of course, close observers should be well aware that Tokyo’s primary motive in sending the GSDF to Iraq is only to keep the Americans sweet. The US-Japan Security Alliance is the cornerstone of Japan’s foreign policy, and has become even more important as Japan’s relations with North Korea and China have cooled in recent years. Keeping the GSDF in Iraq is a straight realpolitik decision.

However, since the Japanese public as a whole has always been skeptical of US motives and US policy under the Bush administration, it has been necessary to cover over this fact by an appeal to a sort of fuzzy internationalism that raises fewer public objections. That explains the great efforts that MOFA and the Defense Agency have gone to in promoting the idea that the GSDF is in Iraq for “reconstruction support.” The private message to Washington is: “We are with you as a steadfast member of the Coalition.” At the same time, the message to the Japanese and Iraqi public is: “We are not in Iraq as a member of the Coalition, but simply to provide support to the Iraqi people in rebuilding their nation.” To a certain degree, this two-faced policy has been a success. Ambassador Schieffer’s comments indicate that he understands the game and is willing to play along.

As a result, it is now very clear that the GSDF will in fact still be in Samawa at the beginning of next year. The only two factors that might alter that verdict would be a collapse of the Koizumi administration due the bitter infighting caused by the post office privatization bill, or a lethal attack on the GSDF in Samawa. Barring one of those events, they’ll still be there in January.

Finally, in Samawa it was announced on the 19th that three men have been arrested in connection with the attacks on the GSDF camp earlier this month. Details are not known, and it is possible that the suspects had nothing to do with the attacks.

Sources:

Hirata, Munehiro, “Jieitai Iraku Haken—Shusho, Sai-Encho Hitei sezu (The SDF Dispatch to Iraq: The Prime Minister Does Not Deny the Possibility of Extension),” Mainichi Shinbun, July 9, 2005.

Nihon Keizai Shinbun, “Iraku Jieitai Encho: Shusho, Beikokumuchokan ni Shisa—Beigun Saihen 9-gatsu ni Seika—Nichibei Gaisho ga Goi (SDF Will Extend its Dispatch to Iraq: Japanese Prime Minister Implies to the U.S. Secretary of State: Reorganization of U.S. Armed Forces in Japan in September: Japan and U.S. Foreign Ministers Reach an Agreement),” Nihon Keizai Shinbun, July, 13, 2005.

Wakamatsu, Satoru, “Takokusekigun Keizoku Konkyo Nichibei de Kyogi—Iraku Jieitai Encho Sonae (Japanese-American Discussions Based on the Continuation of the Multinational Army: Preparations to Extend the SDF Mission in Japan),” Asahi Shinbun, July 17, 2005.

Asahi Shinbun, “Jieitai e no Hogeki—3 Yogisha o Kosoku (A Rocket Attack on the SDF: Three Suspects are Apprehended),” Asahi Shinbun, July 20, 2005.

Karasaki, Taro, “Schieffer Pushes for Extension of SDF’s Iraq Duty,” International Herald Tribune / Asahi, July 20, 2005.

Kyodo News, “Samawa Rikuji Shukueichi Hogeki—Chikaku no 3-nin Taiho (Rocket Attack on the GSDF Base in Samawa: Three Nearby Men are Arrested),” Yomiuri Shinbun, July 20, 2005.

Mainichi Shinbun, “Samawa no Jieitai—Minkan Shien no Junbi mo Susume yo (The SDF in Samawa: Prepare for Civilian Support as Well!),” Mainichi Shinbun, July 20, 2005.