Newsletter No. 344
News-Analysis
July 28, 2006

 

AN AWKWARD SILENCE IN TOKYO AS LEBANON BURNS

If you are wondering what the Japanese reaction has been to the massive bombings of Lebanon and the destruction of an entire nation's infrastructure; the answer seems to be, "very little." Both the government and the press have made some perfunctory statements, but, by and large, the Japanese establishment has been meek and quiet.

MOFA has so far released two statements on the situation, both provided below. They are pretty mild in light of what's going on in Lebanon itself. While UN Representative Shinichi Kataoka went on the floor of the UN on the 14th and announced that "Japan strongly condemns the attacks by Hizballah, which are a blatant breach of relevant Security Council resolutions, as well as the abduction of the Israeli soldiers," Tokyo's response to the Israeli air attacks on the entire Lebanese nation and the illegal and outrageous treatment of Lebanese civilians in the south, has only gone as far as saying that Japan "strongly calls on Israel again to exercise its utmost restraint."

Well... they haven't been "exercising restraint," so what is Tokyo's next step? Condemnation? Call for immediate ceasefire? So far, nothing at all.

Everybody knows the reason: As ever, Tokyo is being deferential to the sensitivities of Washington. They don't want to step on the Bush Administration's toes. The crisis of North Korea has recently flared up again, and once more Tokyo's policy in West Asia is being held hostage to their worries about the future of the U.S.-Japan Security Alliance.

Nevertheless, Washington itself is becoming ever more isolated in world opinion. The Iraq War and the exaggerated rhetoric about terrorism started this process in earnest, and the current refusal to even call for an immediate end to the current round of death and destruction in Lebanon is deepening American isolation. Even in Britain -- perhaps Washington's most trusted ally -- public opinion and large parts of the political establishment are disgusted with the Bush regime, and even their own Prime Minister, for not acting more proactively to bring an end to this current political and military nonsense -- which doesn't even serve American or Israeli interests in the medium term.

Tokyo's deference to Washington makes some sense in light of their own situation in East Asia. However, it doesn't make any sense at all to compromise one's own core political principles just to avoid some minor tensions and criticism. If Tokyo and Washington are indeed friends -- as the official diplomatic rhetoric likes to suggest -- then the Koizumi Administration would be well advised to nudge their American friends back in the direction of political sanity. Friends sometimes say "no" to friends. Friendship allows that... though servitude may not.

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PRESS SECRETARY'S STATEMENT ON THE SITUATION ON THE ISRAEL-LEBANON BORDER
July 13, 2006

The Government of Japan calls on Hezbollah to immediately release the two Israeli soldiers who were abducted on 12 July. The Israeli military operations on 13 July that have caused many civilian casualties and the destruction of airport facilities in Lebanon increases tension in the region and never contributes to the solution of the problem. The Government of Japan calls on the Government of Lebanon to make every effort to secure the release of the Israeli soldiers and to bring an end to the violence by the militias. The Government of Japan also strongly calls on the Government of Israel to exercise its self-restraint. The Government of Japan is deeply concerned that these events may negatively affect the future efforts towards peace in the region. The Government of Japan renews its call on all parties concerned to exercise their utmost self-restraint to prevent further deterioration of the situation.

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PRESS SECRETARY'S STATEMENT ON THE SITUATION ON THE ISRAEL-LEBANON BORDER
July 26, 2006

The Government of Japan expresses its deep regret at the incident on July 25th where UN peacekeepers were killed by an Israel Air Force strike while the international society was calling for Israel's self-restraint. The Government of Japan is deeply concerned about the deterioration of the situation. It reiterates its call for immediate release of the abducted Israeli soldiers and an end to rocket attacks against Israel, and strongly calls on Israel again to exercise its utmost restraint. The Government of Japan is deeply concerned that the current situation may negatively affect the future efforts towards peace in the region. The Government of Japan renews its call on all parties concerned to exercise their utmost self-restraint to prevent further deterioration of the situation.

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EDITORIAL: THE ENDGAME IN LEBANON
Japan Times
July 28, 2006

It has been more than two weeks since Hezbollah launched a raid on Israel that prompted a brutal Israel response and appears to have triggered what can only be called a war. The international community has sharply criticized the combatants, but has done little more than protest. There is talk of inserting a multinational peacekeeping team, but the odds of that occurring are long under current circumstances. Most disturbing is the apparent failure on all sides to set realistic objectives in this crisis. Without them, this incident will be another bloody interval in Lebanon's sad history.

On July 12, the militant Islamic group Hezbollah launched a raid on northern Israel, kidnapping two soldiers. Israel responded by sending troops to find and retrieve the two. They failed, but not before several other soldiers died when their armed personnel carrier hit a land mine. Israel retaliated by bombing key targets, including infrastructure, within Lebanon. Hezbollah responded with rocket attacks on Haifa, Israel's third-largest city, which prompted full-scale bombing of Lebanon by Israel and a blockade of major ports.

Thus far, the fighting has killed hundreds of Lebanese and dozens of Israelis. The United Nations estimates that 600,000 Lebanese, more than 15 percent of the population, have been forced to flee their homes. Lebanese Prime Minister Fuad Saniora has said Israel's bombardment has taken his country "backward 50 years." That may provide some primitive satisfaction for those Israelis seeking vengeance for the wounds inflicted by Hezbollah. But the airstrikes weaken the Lebanese government while strengthening Hezbollah, which has won popular support for both its ability to hurt Israel and to deliver social services to Lebanese who have been all but abandoned by their own government. The creation of a failed state on its northern border does not strengthen Israel's security.

The reaction of the government of Prime Minister Ehud Olmert is driven by two considerations. The first is the leadership's lack of military experience. Mr. Olmert is the first Israeli prime minister who has not served at the senior level of military command. His predecessors would not have been subject to criticism that they were soft; Mr. Olmert and his Cabinet may have overreacted to forestall any such criticism.

At the same time, the Israeli government senses the opportunity to break Hezbollah once and for all. There is little sympathy among governments in the Middle East -- with the exception of Iran and Syria -- for the group's tactics. The Israeli Cabinet felt this was the chance to go into Lebanon, seize Hezbollah's arms and kill or capture its militants without fear of censure. And indeed, the initial Israeli response was greeted by silence from many Arab governments. Its supporters -- in particular, the U.S. government -- argue that a ceasefire is meaningless without addressing "the root cause of the hostilities" -- Hezbollah's operating with impunity from southern Lebanon. Any solution must include disarming Hezbollah and removing the missiles that it has used to attack Israel.

Yet, as the offensive has continued, perceptions have changed and Israel is now seen as going too far. The sustained assault is proving to be another diplomatic black eye for the country. Arab governments that do not support Hezbollah's radicalism worry that the group's ability to stand up to Israel will empower radical movements elsewhere in the region.

Israel nurtured high hopes when it invaded Lebanon in the 1980s. Then, the objective was to break the Palestine Liberation Organization (PLO). Israeli troops drove the PLO leadership into exile in Tunis, but the resulting political and security vacuum opened the door to Hezbollah. Its military presence in Lebanon posited Israel as an occupying force, denying it the moral high ground. Lebanon's borders proved porous and insurgents and weapons poured in. Syria, in particular, had a stake in maintaining pressure on Israel as Damascus wanted leverage to bargain for the return of the Golan Heights. Israeli troops were targets for continuing attacks until then Prime Minister Ehud Barak called for the unilateral withdrawal of Israeli forces from Lebanon in 2000. Hezbollah called that a military victory. Oddly, the U.S. experience in Iraq has not dissuaded the Bush administration from embracing equally far-reaching ambitions elsewhere in the region.

There is talk of deploying a multilateral force in southern Lebanon to create and maintain the peace. There are several problems with this approach. No government is ready to commit troops. In addition to other commitments, none wishes to become the target of radicals. Everyone remembers too well the experience of French and U.S. forces targeted by suicide bombers in the 1980s. They worry that history will repeat itself. Sadly, that appears already to be the case.