Newsletter No. 664
News-Analysis
July 2, 2007

 

MORE BUSH ADMINISTRATION PRESSURE TO SEND THE SDF TO AFGHANISTAN

Kyodo News has reported that James Shinn, who is about to take over as US Deputy Undersecretary of Defense for Asia and Pacific Security Affairs, met on June 29th with Taku Yamasaki, chairman of the LDP's Research Commission on Security, and requested that Japan send the SDF to Afghanistan. In particular, Shinn was requesting Japanese contributions “in the transportation sector.”

In response, Yamasaki said “an additional mission in connection with the Afghanistan operations would be difficult, noting that the special law authorizing the dispatch of MSDF vessels will expire in November.”

Photo: Taku Yamasaki
Source: LDP Official Website

Analysis --

Taku Yamasaki’s response seems like a firm “no.” When a Japanese says that something is “difficult” (muzukashii) that usually indicates that they are not going to budge.

On the other hand, this is Taku Yamasaki, one of the few intelligent foreign policy moderates left in the LDP. Despite his seniority and the ostensible authority that should come from his official position, he is not actually very influential in today’s LDP. Prime Minister Shinzo Abe and the other ideological rightwingers who now dominate the LDP do not really respect Yamasaki, and see him as a spent force.

In this context, it should also be recalled that it was Yamasaki who told US Assistant Secretary of Defense for International Security Affairs Peter Rodman last July that it would require “a lot of political energy” to extend the MSDF Indian Ocean mission, being clearly not pleased with the prospect. However, in the end, the new Abe Administration extended the mission as one of its first acts in office.

The point is this: Washington has made an end-run around Taku Yamasaki before, and they are likely to try to do so again.

In my analysis, Yamasaki is one of the wisest heads left in the LDP, but he is now politically isolated and lacks genuine clout inside his own party -- His “no” will not be the end of the story.