Newsletter No. 688
News-Analysis
July 28, 2007

 

JAPAN AND PAKISTAN DISCUSS MISSILES AND NUCLEAR WEAPONS

Is someone at MOFA reading the Shingetsu Newsletter? This next story almost makes me think so. You will recall that in Shingetsu Newsletter No. 682 on the 22nd, I had some tough words about the fact that the Japanese government’s handling of the nuclear issue in Iran and Pakistan was contradictory, with the Iranian program apparently being a major problem for them, but the Pakistani program no trouble at all.

Well, three days later on the 25th MOFA’s Director General of Disarmament, Non-Proliferation and Science Takeshi Nakane visited Islamabad and urged the Pakistanis to sign and ratify the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) and the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty (CTBT). The Pakistani delegation was led by Pakistani foreign ministry official Khalil Ullah Qazi, who is their Director of General Disarmament.

The answer to the Japanese plea was “no” -- Qazi made it clear that Pakistan had no intention to sign the NPT at this time. He did offer his explanation that Pakistan’s programs were exclusively maintained for defensive purposes. He also “expressed [Pakistan’s] full resolve to abide by UN regulations and the prudent use of nuclear and missile technologies.”

It appears that there was more agreement on the issue of North Korea. Nakane insisted on Pakistan’s full compliance with UNSC Resolution 1718, which bars North Korea from conducting any further nuclear tests or launching ballistic missiles, and abandon all nuclear weapons and existing nuclear programs in a complete, verifiable, and irreversible manner.

In the past, Pakistan has been one of North Korea’s main partners in dodging international non-proliferation efforts. A statement regarding the meeting asserted that “the Pakistani side agreed on the importance of its observance.” This wording suggests that Islamabad did not absolutely promise not to work with North Korea on these issues, but the noises were positive.

All in all, it seems clear that Japan and Pakistan still have a long way to go on the issues of missile and nuclear non-proliferation, but in most other respects the two countries seem to be aiming to enhance their bilateral relationship. It remains to be seen if Nakane’s visit to Islamabad was just window-dressing, or part of a more determined effort to get Pakistan to fall in line with the strengthening international regime of nuclear non-proliferation.

Obviously, however, it is highly unlikely that Pakistan would actually eliminate its extralegal nuclear arsenal until India does as well. The two processes would probably have to be carried out simultaneously. But then the issue of China is a complicating factor too…