Newsletter No. 1419
News-Analysis
July 22, 2009

 

COUNTDOWN ON THE LIBERAL DEMOCRATIC PARTY

Although the Shingetsu Newsletter does not track Japanese domestic politics as closely as some other sites, we do take note of major political changes when they have the potential to significantly impact the course of Japanese-Islamic relations. As such, we cannot fail to observe that the lower house of the Japanese Diet was dissolved yesterday, and that general elections are now scheduled for August 30th.

That news alone would justify a Newsletter, but in fact this is shaping up to be no ordinary Japanese general election: There is a reasonably high probability that this election will bring about the end of the long era of the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) in Japan. Since Japan’s two leading conservative parties merged to form the LDP in 1955, this party has dominated the center stage of Japanese politics like perhaps no other in the democratic world. In 54 years, the LDP was pushed out of power only for a period of months in 1993-1994. Even in that case, however, the LDP’s fall from power was triggered by a split in the party, not a real defeat at the polls by an opposition party.

This time is different. Should the Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ) do as well in the coming elections as current public opinion polls suggest to be likely, then the LDP will be defeated soundly in a straight fight with a single rival for the first time. If that happens, then personally I would not be surprised if the LDP—at least in its current form—is never able to pick itself up from the ground again.

In my view, the glue that holds the LDP together is the exercise of power. Should that power be taken away without a serious prospect of a quick recovery, then it is quite possible that what remains of the LDP after August 30th could come apart at the seams, and the party may break up into several pieces. This, of course, would be a huge development in the Japanese political world.

On the other hand, even if this scenario comes to pass, I don’t believe that we will see too many fundamental changes in government policies. I expect that a DPJ government will make a few changes that I will welcome, but also that it will not depart radically from most of the policies now observed in Tokyo.

Also, even if the LDP disappears, most of the names of the leaders of the current LDP that grace the pages of the Shingetsu Newsletter will still be in the Diet, and they will return again. Some might enter the DPJ, while others might lead new smaller parties that eventually enter the government as part of a coalition. I don’t expect that the DPJ as we know it today will form a stable majority that will last for too many years. At first, the DPJ will probably ally themselves with the left-leaning parties in the Diet which are their opposition colleagues today. After a number of months or years in power, however, look for the DPJ to cast about for more conservative allies such as New Komeito or the smaller parties that may succeed the LDP.

Of course, the scenario that I am sketching out here depends on a decisive DPJ victory on August 30th that hasn’t happened yet. If Taro Aso beats the odds and somehow manages to outperform the DPJ, then all bets are off. In such a case, a LDP-DPJ-New Komeito grand coalition would not be an improbable outcome.

Anyway, here’s my overall prediction: The August 30th elections will bring about a more liberal, Asia-oriented government than the current regime, but after a relatively short period of some months or years, Tokyo will move back in a conservative direction, in large part due to underlying institutional, cultural, and political factors in Japan.

ADDENDUM
July 29, 2009

Ahmad Rashid Malik (Shingetsu Member No. 238) of the Islamabad Policy Research Institute has brought to our attention the following column he recently wrote for the Pakistani daily newspaper The Nation (Islamabad, Lahore, and Karachi):

Political Change in Japan
By Dr Ahmad Rashid Malik
The Nation
July 27, 2009

The House of Representatives, the lower house of the Japanese Diet (Parliament), led by the unchallenged, traditional ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), known as Jiminto in Japanese, was dissolved on July 21 by PM Taro Aso. New elections will be held after 40 days; next month on August 30. Analysts believe that this time it is not going to be a mere factional change in the Diet or an ordinary general election as happened in the past, but it will be a substantial political change after a very long time. So much so, many predict that the change will bury the politics engineered by the LDP since 1955, a distinctive feature of the Japanese faction-ridden domestic party politics. Japan is known for the longest one-party rule in the democratic world. The LDP ruled Japan without facing any drastic challenge from other political parties in its 54 years of rule, with the exception of just a few months when it did not stay in power. The LDP's grip over domestic politics and foreign policy issues has never been shaken.

Now many expect that the LDP iron fist will be over in a few days. Michael Penn, Executive Director of the Kitakyushu-based think-tank Shingetsu Institute says that given the present structure of the LDP, it would "never be able to pick itself up from the ground again," as he sees break up of the party into several pieces. Changes may include changes in the political leadership of the nation as well changes in US-Japan relations, particularly with regard to both countries' cooperation on War on Terror -- but seemingly not in an abrupt manner. Penn is optimistic "about a more liberal, Asia-oriented government" in Japan, which will intend to lead Asia as opposed to merely cultivating ties with Washington.

Outside Japan and in its surrounding region, similar feelings are emerging. The Korea Times in its editorial on July 22 opines that the success of the Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ), "will lead to considerable change in Japan's politics and economy and its effects will surely spill over to its neighbours, mainly Korea and China." The London-based Financial Times on July 21, under caption "New Dawn in the Land of the Rising Sun," predicts success for the DPJ in the coming polls. Explaining the same changing trends, the leading Japanese newspaper Asahi Shimbun wrote in its July 22 editorial that "it is quite likely that Minshuto [DPJ] will come to power." The Japan Times, in its editorial on July 23, said: "A victory for the DPJ in the election would put an end to the LDP's almost total control of politics since 1955."

At the moment, the DPJ has approximately a 10 percent edge over the LDP. Analysts say that the party could easily win the elections. They are optimistic that the party would be the likely winner on August 30. They also, however, say that the party may not achieve a comfortable majority in the Lower House of the Diet, so it would align itself with several smaller leftist parties, and members broken away from the LDP to form the government. The DPJ won the elections of the Upper House (House of Councillors) two years ago in July 2007. DPJ leader Yukio Hatoyama, who replaced veteran Ichiro Ozawa in May, said: "It is time we destroy bureaucracy-led politics that have lasted since the Meiji Restoration and create new politics in which people play the central role," and announced that "I would like to take on this major fight with a historic sense of mission."

Conversely, the LDP has been facing its worst time since its rebirth following PM Junichiro Koizumi's resignation in September 2006. Three LDP leaders – namely, Shinzo Abe, Yasuo Fukuda, and Aso -- could not sustain their regimes one after the other. The latter dissolved the Lower House after taking the office only 10 months ago from Fukuda. They turned into unpopular prime ministers who could hardly replace Koizumi and their political standing has been near rock bottom within a short span of time. Aso was the third PM in only three years after Koizumi resigned.

Abrupt government changes after Koizumi sent a negative message to the public, which largely turned down the LDP's foreign policy and blamed the party for not ensuring good governance and for engineering the same old backdoor politics. The LDP has very little to show to the voters for its support now. People are particularly disappointed on economic reforms and the global economic crisis, which has badly hit Japanese industry and caused a decline in growth and exports. The economy is running at an all-time low, i.e. over 10 percent below its potential with an ageing and shrinking population. This may affect Japan's stature as the second most developed economy in the world after the US, and the biggest one in Asia.

The LDP might face a factional split from now. That's why political pundits have been predicting a difficult time for the LDP. The LDP's apologies probably will not win the hearts and minds of the voters. For them it is more than enough. The party lost the Tokyo metropolitan elections on July 12, 10 days before the Diet was dissolved, for the first time in 40 years. This is a major setback, which was not less than a rebellion-like situation unknown to the party for years. Moreover, scandals, factionalism, nepotism, hereditary politics, fuzzy privatization schemes, failed economic reforms, and above-all money-politics have too long damaged the face of the LDP.

Criticising the performance of the LDP, one of the leading Japanese newspapers, the Mainichi daily wrote: "Aso's decision to dissolve the Diet comes too late" forcing the LDP "to fight in the general election under the worst possible conditions." Therefore, defenses that were erected against Ozawa's so-called bribery scandal, which resulted in his resignation as opposition leader in the Diet just a couple of months ago on May 11, 2009, could not save the LDP in the eyes of the majority of the Japanese. With the resignation of Ozawa, LDP chiefs and lieutenants were seemingly optimistic about the end of the Ozawa era. Conversely, Ozawa's exit injected a new confidence into the rank and file of the DPJ, but the LDP's magic faded after Koizumi's exit. Consequently, Abe, Fukuda, and Aso could not save the sinking ship of the LDP. At this time, the LDP is facing the most difficult crisis in its history.

America needs to re-adjust itself to the new realism emerging in Japanese domestic politics, as it has already emerged in US domestic politics in the shape of the success of Barack Obama last November. Obama has the tendency to adjust to emerging realism in world politics, such as changes in the Middle East, Iraq, Iran, and Pakistan, for instance. People in Pakistan voted for liberal parties in last February's polls to get rid of militants. Iranian voters have signaled their dislike for the old reactionary right wing party in last month's polls. By the same token, the long honeymoon of the United States with the LDP has to come to an end. The leaders that ruled Japan with a strong memory of war have gone away. A new relationship between Japan and the US is imminent with the DPJ in the leadership seat. All this will depend on the outcome of the most critical and 'revolutionary-like' election results on August 30 -- and the world will be watching how much Japan is going to be changed.

The writer is a research fellow (East Asia) at the Islamabad Policy Research Institute (IPRI)