Newsletter No. 632
News-Analysis
June 3, 2007

 

The following newsletter has been contributed by Keely Fahoum (Shingetsu Member No. 112). Fahoum is based at the Defense Language Institute in Monterey.

TOKYO MISSES THE MARK ON LEBANON

As a result of the recent violence that has occurred in Lebanon between the Palestinian group Fatah al-Islam, holed up in the Nahr al-Bared refugee camp, and the Lebanese army, MOFA has released statements reiterating its support for Lebanese Prime Minister Fuad Siniora (see below). It is important to mention that the current violence between the two parties was not precipitated by efforts of the Lebanese Army to eliminate groups affiliated with al-Qaida, but instead was a by-product of a criminal pursuit of Fatah al-Islam members who took sanctuary inside the Nahr al-Bared Palestinian refugee camp. Siniora's decision to pursue the Fatah al-Islam members using military power was probably not the wisest choice; however, I am unaware of any efforts to use law enforcement prior to turning to the Army. By shelling the refugee camps, Siniora has put both Palestinian civilians and Lebanese Army personnel at risk as well as drawing attention to a group affiliated with al-Qaida.

The recent attacks on the camp have been publicized heavily by Arab media outlets (al-Jazeera, al-Arabiya, al-Hurra, etc.) who have been broadcasting live from Lebanon with images of fighting and desperate statements being made by Fatah al-Islam officials threatening to "fight to the death." It is rhetoric like this which could possibly appeal to foreign sympathizers (not to mention providing more fodder for al-Qaida's PR machine), creating a potentially unstable situation for the whole of Lebanon. Hizballah spokesman Hassan Nasrallah echoed this concern during a statement made on al-Manar (Hizballah's media outlet) television just days ago, indicating the danger of attacking Fatah al-Islam inside the Palestinian refugee camp. Nasrallah pointed out the group's link to al-Qaida and argued that any violence expounded by the Lebanese military would only exacerbate the problem and draw in foreign fighters which could eventually destabilize the already fragile Lebanese government. He quickly distanced himself and Hizballah from Fatah al-Islam saying they would not get involved in the violence, nor did they support the group or its affiliation with al-Qaida.

While the stability of Lebanon is a key component to peace in the Levant, Prime Minister Siniora and his government have not been able to restore public order and security within the country without the acquiescence and cooperation of groups like Hizballah, the Druze and other Christian opposition groups (as was evidenced by the July 2006 war). Siniora is not a power unto himself, and there continues to be the constant threat from factions which have the potential to split the country at any time.

In one of its statements MOFA did point out that a humanitarian crisis could threaten Palestinian refugees in Lebanon, but stopped short of indicating any monetary or logistical support at this time. In the past, however, Japan has been extremely supportive of UNRWA and the Palestinian refugee cause in Lebanon, particularly in the educational and medical fields. UN reports indicate that in addition to Japan's overall contribution to UNRWA's General Fund Budget, in 2005, it contributed US$400,000 for the construction of 24 classrooms and US$100,000 to sponsor female Palestinian students in achieving higher, university-level education.

All in all, MOFA missed the mark on their assessment of the situation and failed to recommend a judicial and non-violent solution to the problem. They would have been better served by promoting cooperation of all Lebanese political parties, perhaps not singling out Siniora, but emphasizing the importance of a unity government cohesively working for the betterment of Lebanon and the prevention of any foreign group-inspired instability. Unfortunately, this effort could have put Japanese diplomats at odds with the US stance, which stubbornly promotes Siniora as the solution to Lebanon's woes. As it stands now, fissures which threatened the Lebanese government in the recent past could be ripped open with an increase in terror attacks outside the Palestinian refugee camps, either by Fatah al-Islam members themselves, or the group's sympathetic supporters.

Statement by the Press Secretary/Director-General for Press and Public Relations, Ministry of Foreign Affairs, on the Recent Situation in Lebanon.
May 25, 2007

The Government of Japan expresses its deep concern over the recent situation in Lebanon, and condemns the activities by the militant groups which threaten the stability in Lebanon.

The Government of Japan, recognizing that the stability of Lebanon is indispensable for the peace and stability of the entire Middle East, strongly supports the efforts of Prime Minister Siniora and his government to restore public order and security, and calls on all parties concerned to cooperate with their efforts.

The Government of Japan also expresses its concern over the deterioration of the humanitarian situation of the Nahr El-Bared refugee camp.

Statement by the Press Secretary/Director-General for Press and Public Relations, Ministry of Foreign Affairs, on Adoption of UN Security Council Resolution 1757 on the Lebanon Special Tribunal
June 1, 2007

The Government of Japan welcomes the adoption of United Nations Security Council Resolution 1757 on May 31 (Japan Time), on the establishment of a special tribunal on the assassination in February 2005 of Mr. Rafic Hariri, former Prime Minister of the Republic of Lebanon.

Being concerned about the conflict among Lebanese parties over this issue, Japan hopes that the truth behind the incident will be further revealed through the tribunal established by the UNSC’s resolution.

The Government of Japan strongly urges all Lebanese parties concerned to cooperate with Mr. Fuad Siniora, Prime Minister of Lebanon, and his government for national reconciliation.