Newsletter No. 1206
News-Analysis
November 18, 2008

 

OPPOSITION PARTIES TO STALL INDIAN OCEAN MISSION PASSAGE

Not so surprisingly, the DPJ is now indicating that they are now prepared to boycott Diet deliberations on the re-extension of the MSDF Indian Ocean mission. The House of Representatives already passed the bill on October 21st, and it is now under consideration in the opposition-controlled House of Councillors. The DPJ had previously intended to vote the bill down quickly -- and thus allow the ruling parties to use their override swiftly -- in order to clear the boards for general elections. This tacit bargain was upset, however, when Prime Minister Taro Aso decided to push elections further down the road into 2009.

Every close observer knows that Aso wants to delay elections because he thinks that he and the ruling parties will lose. However, if you are prime minister, you can’t just say such a thing openly. As a result, he has used the global financial crisis as his plausible reason for not moving into elections at this time. Cleverly, DPJ leader Ichiro Ozawa is consequently holding the premier’s feet to the fire on that excuse. Top executives of the LDP and DPJ met yesterday in a tense meeting. When Prime Minister Aso failed to clarify when, or even if, he would submit a second supplementary budget to the Diet before the scheduled closing on November 30th, Ozawa and the DPJ announced that they would no longer be cooperating. Ozawa explained to the press: “Isn’t Aso’s statement to place greater importance on the economy and economic measures rather than an election a commitment he made to the public? It is truly regrettable that Aso has yet to even try to implement this public commitment with only two weeks left in the Diet session... When I say I will do something, I will do it properly -- I keep my promises.”

The DPJ probably cannot stop passage of the MSDF extension bill. The ruling parties will likely extend the Diet session through December. This will allow Aso and the LDP to wait out the House of Councillors and then pass the bill forcefully with their House of Representatives supermajority in late December. This is still a battle they will win if the LDP and New Komeito retain their solidarity.

On the other hand, while they may win the immediate political battle, they are losing the war. One new public opinion poll has Aso’s support rate dropping below 30% for the first time. His real rate of support might be a few points better than that, but the trend is ominous. Some Japanese observers are already writing his political obituary. For example, political commentator Hirotaka Futatsugi asserts: “Aso will become the LDP’s funeral director instead of saving it.”