:: Shingetsu Institute ::

ABE RESIGNATION IMPACTS THE FUTURE OF THE MSDF INDIAN OCEAN MISSION

Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s resignation at this time may or may not be directly related to his efforts to extend the MSDF Indian Ocean mission beyond its current November 1st deadline. However, there is little doubt that his sudden departure complicates Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) efforts to keep the MSDF in place.

One of the main issues is timing. The LDP had been hoping to rush through either an extension of the current law, or even to pass an entirely new bill, as soon as possible. The LDP dominates the more powerful House of Representatives, but is practically assured defeat in the Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ)-led House of Councillors. The result is that the opposition DPJ can currently delay the government for a couple of months, but cannot entirely stop the LDP from overriding them if the ruling party is totally united and in earnest. These are interesting times because the conclusions are far from certain at present.

Abe’s resignation is at a minimum going to slow down the ruling LDP in getting the legal framework in place, which means that the Japanese warships will probably have to be at least temporarily withdrawn so long as Ichiro Ozawa and the DPJ remain adamant in their opposition to the mission. It may prove to be even more complicated than that for the LDP leadership.

Meanwhile, just an hour or two before Abe announced his resignation, US Ambassador Thomas Schieffer launched another blast demanding obedience from Tokyo. After meeting privately with Chief Cabinet Secretary Kaoru Yosano and Foreign Minister Nobutaka Machimura, Schieffer told reporters: “The work that's going on in the Indian Ocean is an international effort to defeat terrorism… I hope that the people of Japan will realize that this measure is important not only to the United States but to the whole international community.”

I won’t repeat here what I have already said about Ambassador Schieffer’s incessant interference in internal Japanese policymaking, but I will note two new points. First of all, a question: Did Schieffer’s meeting yesterday morning have anything to do with Abe’s announcement of his resignation an hour or two later? Second, whether or not Schieffer played a role in it, he obviously would not have spoken to reporters in the way that he did if he had any perception that Abe was about to resign. This is yet another signal of the basic incompetence of American diplomacy; yet another misread situation. It all goes to show that superior brute power does not necessarily indicate superior mental agility.

The Issue of Pakistani Warships

The Asahi Shinbun is to be congratulated for reporting on the following story. They reveal that Admiral Eiji Yoshikawa, chief of staff of the MSDF, told reporters that it is indeed possible that ships other than Japanese warships could “in principle” refuel Pakistani ships in the Indian Ocean. Up until this point both the Japanese government and the US embassy have been suggesting that only Japan has the capability to refuel Pakistani warships and keep them in the Indian Ocean coalition.

From the point of view of simple logic, it seems odd that Pakistan would have warships that can only be refueled by the Japanese MSDF, but this is precisely what the government has been suggesting. The Asahi report may put this odd notion to rest.

But one other interesting tidbit in the Asahi article was that a former defense minister (Koike? Kyuma?) told reporters that “the United States wants the MSDF's refueling operations to continue because Japan is providing the fuel for free and because the Pakistani government will face domestic criticism if the Islamic nation receives U.S. fuel.”

Ahh! Now that sounds much more plausible.

But I also think that this demonstrates clearly why it is important that Japan keep distance from American policies in the Islamic world. If Tokyo continues doing the bidding of Washington (as they certainly have in recent years), then the Japanese “advantage” in this respect will gradually be depleted and they may become almost as hated for their interventions in the region as is the United States. Despite what conservatives on both sides of the Pacific keep asserting, the United States does not represent the entire “international community.” Japanese leaders would be well advised to start acknowledging that fact and adjusting their foreign policies accordingly.

In addition to their fine reporting above, the Asahi Shinbun also produced a solid editorial yesterday.

THE LDP’S NEW ANTITERRORISM BILL

The Asahi Shinbun

On the divisive issue of whether the Maritime Self-Defense Force should continue its refueling mission in the Indian Ocean, the government and the ruling coalition have come up with a most preposterous proposal for a new bill.

The current anti-terrorism special measures law, which enables the MSDF mission, is due to expire on Nov. 1. The proposal calls for the creation of a new law that will provide legal grounds for the continuation of the mission after the current law expires.

The bill aims to do away with the provision of the existing law that requires Diet approval for all SDF activities after they have been set in motion.

The anti-terrorism special measures law provides the basic framework for SDF missions abroad. When an actual mission is being considered, its specific action and area of operation are spelled out in a basic plan drawn up by the government and approved by the Cabinet. The SDF acts in accordance with this basic plan. Under the current law, the prime minister is required to present the plan to the Diet for approval within twenty days of the start of the SDF mission. Because any such mission entails the deployment of militarily trained and armed personnel, it is only natural that it should involve carefully orchestrated steps. This is in keeping with the fundamental principle of the Constitution that bans the exercise of armed force overseas.

The Diet's approval is needed to deploy the SDF because this is crucial to the principle of civilian control. Should the Diet withhold approval, the SDF must abandon its mission.

Although opinion has remained split on whether the Diet's consent should be obtained before or after the start of the mission, there has never been any doubt about the necessity of Diet approval for an SDF mission plan.

So why is this most important step being eliminated from the new law? The government and the ruling coalition argue that the bill in question is a simple one that deals only with the MSDF's refueling mission. They say the legislation can easily be written with provisions for specific activities that would be similar with any basic plan of this nature drawn up by the government. They also say the passing of this bill will be tantamount to getting the green light from the Diet, which in turn means this will not run counter to the principle of civilian control.

But we cannot possibly accept this argument. The ulterior motive of the government and the coalition is all too clear. They must be thinking that the bill itself will most likely be rejected by the opposition-led Upper House, but by reintroducing it to the Lower House, it will be passed into law with a two-thirds majority. However, if the Diet's approval must be obtained, the Upper House's objection will automatically force the MSDF withdrawal from the Indian Ocean. Therefore, for the government and the ruling coalition, the process of seeking Diet approval must be eliminated.

It would be unconscionable to deploy the SDF abroad on such shoddy reasoning. The last thing we need now is to set the wrong precedent of letting the Lower House become the sole decision maker on the SDF deployment. This will erode the very foundations of our democracy. Having learned its lesson from the ruin brought upon the nation by the unbridled military, post-World War II Japan has kept the SDF's activities under strict control. The Diet must always keep close tabs on the SDF, and this is crucial to the principle of civilian control. This principle must never be tampered with, regardless of whether the MSDF should continue or abandon its mission.

The government and the coalition may be thinking of using the Diet approval issue as a bargaining chip in their negotiations with opposition parties on the SDF deployment abroad. But they should know that if they are set on bending the principle of civilian control, they are not qualified to start any discussion.