:: Shingetsu Institute ::

Newsletter No. 740
Editorial-Opinion
September 17, 2007

RICHARD ARMITAGE ON JAPANESE-ISLAMIC WEST ASIA RELATIONS

An op-ed penned by former US Deputy Secretary of State Richard Armitage appeared yesterday in the Yomiuri Shinbun. The topic of his discussion was directly related to what we do here at the Shingetsu Institute, so by necessity it demands our attention. Richard Armitage, of course, was the key man handling US-Japan relations in the early years of the Bush Administration, including the vital post-9.11 period. He is also known as a close friend of former US Secretary of State Colin Powell.

I was pleasantly surprised in reading Armitage’s op-ed that his current political views are not too far removed from my own. I have little objection to what he says about Iraq, and although he makes some perfunctory and annoying comments about the “threats” of Iran and Syria and a few other groups, I sense that his true message here is actually somewhat radical, and very close to what I have argued before in the Shingetsu Newsletter.

He says that Japan should focus its diplomacy on being “an objective interlocutor that has the respect of nations across the region.” (Isn’t that precisely what I’ve been saying for a long time?) Armitage specifically notes that Tokyo should “continue and expand its efforts to relieve the suffering of Palestinians,” and also that they “should not underestimate the importance of keeping its diplomatic lines open to Iran.” That’s pretty bold coming from such a senior Washington policy figure.

Also surprising is how he singles out MOFA official Tatsuo Arima for praise. As readers of this newsletter should understand, Arima has been, as far as we know, the leading inside figure calling on Tokyo to interact with Hamas. Although Armitage doesn’t say it directly, my impression is that he and Colin Powell (as demonstrated by Powell’s comments reported in Shingetsu Newsletter No. 713) have basically come around to my own way of thinking on how Hamas should be dealt with -- that is, give them a place at the table, address their more legitimate concerns, and slowly cultivate increasing moderation from Hamas leaders by treating them fairly and honestly as one of the legitimate representatives of the Palestinian people.

Finally, consider the full significance of Armitage’s last comment that “Japan has opportunity unavailable to others” in Islamic West Asia. What does this say about Washington’s current policies? What does this suggest that Tokyo should be doing? And -- for that matter -- what does it say about the potential relevance of what we are doing here at the Shingetsu Institute?

Trusted by All Sides, Japan Can Deepen its Role as Interlocutor in the Middle East

By Richard Armitage

Earlier this year, I visited the Middle East where I had the opportunity to assess the mood and dynamics of the region. What struck me primarily was the complexity of the current political landscape and the feeling of flux in almost every aspect of life. I saw both positive and negative trends. More importantly, however, the trends I saw touched fundamentals -- alliances, economics, religion, and worldviews.

At the moment, the United States and much of the world are laser-focused on what is happening within Iraq's borders. Given the problems we face in Iraq that is probably necessary. But we should not lose sight of the ongoing dynamics in the broader Middle East for they may dictate the future of the region and beyond, for better or worse, as much as any outcome in Iraq. It is from this perspective that I believe Japan's interest and engagement in the region is vital.

Iran and Iraq

To paint a picture of what I saw, I begin with three interconnected events, beginning with the resurgence of Iran. Whether it is Iran's ongoing standoff over its nuclear program, its support of forces opposed to coalition efforts in Iraq and Afghanistan, its ties to Islamist militants, or its aggressive stance against Israel and its supporters, Iran is playing a significant, albeit destabilizing, role in the region. Effectively, becoming -- as it once was -- a force with which to reckon.

Second, there is the continued devolution of Iraq. Despite the seven-month "surge" of U.S. forces, the security situation remains tenuous and has done little to encourage positive movement on important fronts. In fact, we are seeing the opposite with continued defection of Sunnis from the political process, little to no progress on important legislation, and rampant corruption within ministries. For Iraq to stand on its own, it will require three legs for support -- an adequately trained and armed army and police force, political reconciliation, and effective governance. To date, we have seen appreciable progress only in the first. Without improvement in the remaining two, it is hard to envision a stable Iraq anytime soon.

A related complicating factor for Iraq's feeble government involves Turkey, which has suffered at the hands of the separatist Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK) for years. To the extent that the Iraqi government is unable to deal effectively with this group operating in northern Iraq, we may see an attempt by Turkey to go after the group themselves, risking a new front in Iraq's war.

Third, there is the more pronounced sectarian violence between the Sunni and Shiite in Iraq. Tension between these two camps has been ever-present. However, today we are seeing the outlines of a civil war that has the potential for scuttling any peaceful path toward stability and encouraging further division along these lines throughout the region.

Factors Adding to the Complexity

In addition to this larger backdrop, there are several associated events that add to the complexity of the picture. In Lebanon, the lid is seemingly off, with tensions boiling among political parties, as well as the more radicalized elements of Lebanese society. The bitter struggle between the Western-backed government and the opposition alliance was in full view recently in a by-election narrowly won by a pro-Syrian opposition candidate. Last summer's conflict with Israel also did much to embolden Hizbollah and other extremists. Not only does Hizbollah remain a significant force both politically and militarily in Lebanon, but the Lebanese are now facing open conflict with Islamist fighters operating out of Palestinian refugee camps. With a weakened Fouad Siniora government in Lebanon and a recalcitrant government in Syria, the prospect for continued instability within Lebanon remains high for the foreseeable future.

Also, in Israel, there is the tremendous unpopularity of the government of Prime Minister Ehud Olmert, which has been fraught with domestic scandal and criticism of its handling of the war in Lebanon. These setbacks have cast Olmert as a rudderless leader, possibly too weakened to follow through on the diplomatic challenges he took up in the initial part of his tenure. Whether or not that is true, that perception will be a factor in any serious negotiations on a Middle East peace plan -- as will Hamas' challenge to Fatah. While Israel and the United States have been trying to improve their ties with the new Fatah-led Palestinian Authority, Hamas remains intransigent and a possible spoiler for any permanent peace deal.

If such complications were not enough, it is important to understand that all these events are taking place at a time when primacy within the Arab world is shifting from Cairo to Riyadh. Although Egypt continues to be a significant player, its prominence has been diminished by Saudi Arabia's activist agenda. The kingdom's leadership role at the Mecca conference and Arab League meetings, together with its crucial participation in any peace plan discussions has placed it at the center of Middle East politics -- and possibly a solution to the region's instability.

Apart from the political landscape, there appear to be equally significant developments in other areas. Business is booming in the Gulf States. Oil money once squandered on pet projects and an immature private sector is now being used to create a more varied and advanced economy. There is a perceptible trend toward more conservative religious views in large swaths of the region, particularly among the young. Refugees from Iraq are impacting neighboring states' demographics and economies. And there appears to be a less forgiving attitude toward the United States and its policies. For many, unfortunately, the United States' recent missteps both at home and abroad have called into question our competency and ability to influence events in the region.

Tokyo's Efforts Invaluable

With all of these factors in play, the Middle East is a region in flux. But, with flux come challenges and opportunity; and for Japan, a special role. That is, one of an objective interlocutor that has the respect of nations across the region. Whereas the United States is mired in an unpopular war and even more unpopular policies, Japan's diverse and deepening ties to the region allow it to operate more freely and with credibility in areas where other governments are stymied.

It is important, therefore, that Japan seeks ways to influence policies and events throughout the Middle East that favor stability. This can be done in myriad ways. Japan should continue and expand its efforts to relieve the suffering of Palestinians through consultations and assistance programs. It should further develop its relations with its traditional friends, such as Kuwait, the United Arab Emirates and Oman; and seek to diversify its interactions with others in the region, such as Saudi Arabia.

Japan should not underestimate the importance of keeping its diplomatic lines open to Iran, and not overlook the implications of those relations for Japan's economy as well as that of the Western world. Japan should not only coordinate its activities with the United States, but should seek to work more closely with the European Union in its efforts to pursue peace and stability. By reinforcing such partnerships, Japan can be a force multiplier in the areas of humanitarian relief and political rapprochement.

Fortunately, in all of this, Japan has already made a good start. It is very fortunate, for example, to have Tatsuo Arima as its special Middle East envoy. Arima is a man who is welcome not only in Israel and the occupied territories, but in every other state in the region. His solid reputation has afforded Japan needed access to key areas of influence, allowing Japan to make a positive difference when it is so badly needed. Prime Ministers Junichiro Koizumi and Shinzo Abe also have reinforced Japan's interest in the region by their recent visits. Their attempt to deepen and diversify Japan's relations through multilayered partnerships is a worthy endeavor that will benefit the region, and Japan, for years to come; particularly through important economic ties.

My hope going forward is that Japan continues on this path, with the understanding that the region's troubles and complexities should not discourage Japan's efforts but fortify its resolve to influence the region's direction. For, at the moment, Japan has opportunity unavailable to others.