:: Shingetsu Institute ::

Newsletter No. 745
News-Analysis
September 20, 200

RUSSIA PROVIDES POLITICAL COVER FOR OZAWA AND THE DEMOCRATS

American diplomacy takes another black eye. Although I’m sure that most of the conservative media will spin this as a victory for Tokyo, what went down in the UN Security Council today was largely a benefit to the position of Ichiro Ozawa and the Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ).

We discussed yesterday the fact that the US (together with Britain and France) was preparing to insert a message of “gratitude” to countries participating in Operation Enduring Freedom in the preamble of a new resolution to extend the International Security Assistance Force (ISAF) mission in Afghanistan. The real message, however, was a poisoned arrow aimed straight at the heart of Ichiro Ozawa and the DPJ. Washington wanted to demonstrate the international legitimacy of Operation Enduring Freedom by gaining the full sanction of the UN Security Council. In this way, they hoped to undermine Ozawa’s contention that the Indian Ocean mission was not UN-authorized. Indeed, US Ambassador to the UN Zalmay Khalilzad was explicit in the linkage to Japan: “This is an opportunity for the Security Council to underscore the importance of this mission and to express by that recognition the appreciation that we all have for the important contribution that Japan is making.” Defense Minister Masahiko Komura also observed: “If the resolution is adopted, then the DPJ will lose its largest grounds for opposing Japan's participation.”

We had originally heard that this matter would be voted on next week, but in fact it was done today. As expected, the UN Security Council authorized another year for the ISAF mission. The shocker, however, is that Russia actually abstained on the vote, and Ambassador Vitaly Churkin made it clear as to why. He spoke to reporters along the following lines: “Russia strongly backs the ISAF mission to fight terrorism in Afghanistan, but we have abstained after the sponsors did not take into account suggestions we and others made to clarify why a certain paragraph was inserted into the text… A decision was made to give priority to domestic considerations of some members of the United Nations. The unity of the Security Council has been sacrificed to undue haste.”

Although his language is coy, it is perfectly obvious that he is referring to the way that the Washington is trying to use the “message of gratitude” to interfere in internal Japanese politics, and that is why Russia chose to abstain (for the first time) on a resolution authorizing the ISAF mission.

Churkin also said the following: “We believe that the maritime component is necessary exclusively to combat terrorism in Afghanistan and should not be used for other purposes.” I read that as meaning that it is Russia’s understanding that the MSDF is indeed refueling US warships bound for the Iraq War and not only Afghanistan, just as Representative Kenji Eda has been asserting.

A Russian abstention and a veiled confirmation that the MSDF is supporting Iraq War operations? Once again, it is clear that US diplomats have bungled. Shouldn’t they have made sure that Russia was on board before going to a vote? Did they think that the Russians would just swallow it if they forced it through, and then stay quiet? Well, now the symbolic message that Washington wanted to convey to the DPJ has actually backfired and -- hey! -- it looks like the Yomiuri is wrong and Russia is still a “key member” of the UN Security Council after all!

China voted for the resolution, but also “expressed concern” over the way it had been drafted.

DPJ Leaders Believe that Fukuda Will Back Off

There is an article in today’s Asahi which is startling if true. It seems that Ichiro Ozawa and the DPJ have calculated that Yasuo Fukuda will not make passage of the MSDF extension bill his top priority this year, and that in fact the DPJ may have already won the battle in the near term. Apparently, Defense Minister Masahiko Komura told reporters on the 18th that the LDP would not try to pass the MSDF extension right away, and will wait until next January to make their big push. If so, that settles the fact that the MSDF will withdraw from its Indian Ocean operations in October, and will not return until next year (if at all).

If Fukuda decides that he needs to build a cooperative relationship with the DPJ in order to pass the fiscal 2008 government budget and other matters, could the political battle over the MSDF Indian Ocean mission already be over in spite of all the tough talk?

KENSHIRO MATSUNAMI IN AFGHANISTAN

Deputy Minister of Education Kenshiro Matsunami is appearing in several Pakistani and Afghan news reports, thus making it clear that he has been on a visit to Afghanistan this week. Matsunami (Osaka 19th District) is a colorful figure. Aside from being associated with Afghanistan friendship organizations, he is also a former wrestler who actually taught at Kabul University from 1975 to 1977. He was Japan’s representative to the recent funeral of Zahir Shah. He used to be a key figure in the now-defunct New Conservative Party, but is currently with the LDP. Matsunami has been involved in several scandals, including one linking him to the yakuza and another in which he threw water at opposition lawmakers during a heated Diet debate. He is also famous for the ponytail that he wears.

At any rate, Matsunami said that Japan’s withdrawal from Afghanistan would harm bilateral relations, and was able to elicit comments of support for the MSDF mission from several Afghan politicians. For example, Mir Wais Yasini, member of the Wolesi Jirga from Nangarha, was quoted as saying: “Afghanistan and Japan were enjoying old and strong ties. Disapproving the law by Japanese parliamentarians will create negative effects on the war against terror.” Similar comments have recently come from Afghan Ambassador in Tokyo Haron Amin and Afghan Foreign Minister Rangin Dadfar Spanta.

Matsunami has also been quoted as saying that Japan would fund the construction of a gymnasium for girls in Kabul. There are currently no public sports facilities for girls in Afghanistan.